Nagpur: Covid-19 second wave, which was highly contagious and virulent, ended in the district in second week of June, say experts and officials.
The second wave continued for 16 weeks in the district.
Infectious diseases specialist Dr Nitin Shinde told TOI, “World Health Organization (WHO) has set the criteria that infection is under control if weekly test positivity rate (TPR) is below 5% for two weeks.
It is understood that the wave has ended if weekly TPR is below 5% for two consecutive weeks,” he said.
As per data of district civil surgeon, weekly TPR dropped below 5% in the district in last week of May.
Weekly TPR was 4.15% in the week from May 22-28.
Weekly TPR further declined to 2.07% in first week of June.
Thus, second wave ended in the district at the beginning of second week of June.
Weekly TPR has continued to drop and was 0.77% in second week and 0.58 in third week of June.
Municipal commissioner Radhakrishnan B also confirmed second wave has ended for the district.
“Therefore, we have started allowing commercial activities in phased manner.
It is a sign of relief for us but there is nothing to rejoice or relax.
We are preparing for projected third wave.
I urge people to continue following guidelines so that cases do not rise and we continue with unlocking activities,” he said.
The district had witnessed peak of first wave in last two weeks of August and entire September last year.
The cases and deaths started to decline from beginning of October and continued till first week of February.
Weekly TPR was 6.44% in last week of January and 6.63% in first week of February.
From second week of February, cases started to increase in weekly TPR.
In second week of February, weekly TPR increased to 8.58%.
Dr Shinde said commencement of second wave can be considered as second week of February.
The cases and deaths were very high in April, and were highest-ever in a month in the pandemic since March 11, 2020.
Weekly TPR ranged from 24-31% in April, with the highest-ever weekly TPR at 31.06% in last week of April.
Since then, cases started to plummet and second wave began to recede.
From second week of June, cases were below 100 on all days in the district.
The cases have been below 40 for last four days.
Cases even fell to 16 on June 19, and were in single digit (8) in the city and also in rural (7) on June 19.
Dr Shinde said, “These are sporadic cases and will continue till third wave.” Radhakrishnan said these cases are also known as tail of second wave, as the pandemic is considered an endemic in the district.
Thus, second wave continued for 16 weeks in the district.
Though highly contagious, second wave ended faster than the first wave.
The peak of first wave came to an end from commencement of October last year.
Weekly TPR was never below 5% till beginning of second wave.
Lowest weekly TPR was 5.85% in second week of November, and 5.88% in third week of November.
Dr Shinde said, “End of first wave can be considered as second week of November.
TPR did not plummet at that time as testing was very less.”