Sunday games have reduced the complexity of the qualification for the IPL 2021 playoffs significantly.
Win vs PBKS RCB means it has become the third team to ensure it will be part of the knock-out stage after CSK and DC.
It made four teams (KKR, PBKS, RR, MI) struggling for fourth place with KKR has gone forward in their race with their victory outside SRH’s dispute.
Shankar Raghuraman Toi has done calculations to show the probability of each team that meets the requirements after Sunday’s match, assuming that in every match given the chance to win or lose is 50-50.
This analysis also ignores clean running rates.
This is what the opportunity for qualifications for four teams in the dispute for the final place: 1) The best KKR is placed at 12 points with one game to play.
Their opportunities at least binding for the fourth point have increased sharply to 62.5% and so far it ran clean among them in a race, they would feel to have legs at the door.
They have a chance of 37.5% to reach the last place without tie on points.
Their assignments are not complicated – win the last match against RR and they almost certainly qualify.
The only obstacle could be if MI also won the two remaining games.
In this case, they will be tied to 14 points and depend on NRR to make it.
2) The next PBKS is on the table, one of three teams at 10 points, but they cannot qualify without NRR that goes into the image now and even the fourth place that is tied is a 6% chance.
Their calculations are far more complicated.
They need to win their last match against CSK and hope Mi beat RR and RR in turn defeating the TRC while SRH defeated MI.
One of them that does not happen will mean curtains for PBKS.
3) RR, this is the sixth, it is better to be placed with extra games in hand.
They have a 25% chance to reach fourth place exclusively and 37.5% is likely to be at least bound for fourth.
They can qualify even if they lose to MI, but not if they lose to KKR.
If they win both, they must meet the requirements.
4) MI is the lowest among the seventh competitors, but as RR has extra games, which means their chances of at least 37.5%, but they only have a chance of 12.5% to make four points points.
And given that they have the worst NRR among these four teams, it’s not good news.
If they win their two matches left against RR and SRH, and RR defeat KKR, they will qualify without tie.
How do we arrive in this probability? The process begins by registering any possible scenario that remains in terms of the combination of the results of individual matches.
On Monday morning, with 7 games remaining to be played, it means 128 (two possibilities for the first match, each of which has two for the next game and so on, produces a total of 2 which is raised to 7 or 128).
We then see what the scenario means in terms of the final point calculation for each team and the ranking of what places them in (ignoring NRR, which cannot be predicted).
The probability for each team is then calculated by dividing the number of scenarios where it is completed in the top four with the total number of possible scenarios, at this time 128, and multiplying it with the same number of points.
Having a different probability because of what they have left and also how the match involving other teams influenced their last placement.
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