Mumbai: 80% of the Mumbai population may have been exposed to the SARS-COV-2 virus which causes Covid, the third wave peak is not possible for the second wave peak in which 90 deaths are registered in May 1.
However, this is a positive projection by scientists from the research institute Fundamental Tata (TIFR), Colaba, is equipped with a warning: This is provided with no substantial reinfection.
“Reinfection will hold the key in the third wave,” said the main author of this study from Sandeep Junkeja, Dean of TIFR school technology and computer science.
Nearly 17 months since the pandemic began in India and the infected people in the first wave in 2020 could be vulnerable to returning because they dropped the level of antibodies.
Overseeing reinfection will help the authority of citizenship capture the initial trend.
Juneja said it would help examine the third wave if 20% of Mumbaikars had not arrested Covid-19 but immediately vaccinated.
The TIFR Jueja and Daksh Mittal team worked on several scenarios for the third wave.
“We also consider a rather pessimistic scenario where significant reinfection (among 80% recovered, 10% can receive infection, and if infected, will follow the development of the same disease as the first infected), or a new variant of 50% more contagious And 50% more malignant than the Delta variant (we assume that the Delta variant is 2.25 times more contagious than the previous variant in Mumbai and a little more malignant), “they said.
Other factors that can affect the third wave will have a poor effectiveness of vaccines (because the variant causes escape from vaccine immunity) or opening the city at a level of 60% but the right adherence to the appropriate behavior.
“Apart from these negative things, the resulting peak looks no bigger than it’s under the second wave,” Junkeja said.
The team believes the third wave will be almost not visible in September if four factors align: mild reinfection; There is no new dangerous variant, wide vaccination coverage in June, July and August; and this vaccine is effective 75-95%.
Interestingly, TIFR paper said the peak of Mumbai during the second wave was lower than, say, the peak in Delhi and Bengaluru were due to the higher level of exposure to the previous virus.
Mumbai saw the peak of around 11,000 cases a day in the second wave, while Delhi saw the peak of around 28,000 and Bangalore around 25,000.
“Mumbai, with a population of around 13 million, already has around 65% of the population exposed to the disease (according to our model).
Delhi with 19 million is estimated to be 55% of the population exposed to this time.
Bangalore, with a population similar to Mumbai estimated at 45% revealed around February 1.
Thus, while the Mumbai government is well organized in handling the second wave, the presence of high sero positivity may have helped Mumbai avoid tragic consequences that might have been produced from a much higher peak, “the paper concluded.