After what seems like a really long time, the second wave of the Covid outbreak is on the decline.
With aggressive vaccination drives taking place, the country is looking at slowly returning to normalcy.
The film industry, which, too, was hit hard by the pandemic and the resulting lockdown, is gearing up to resume work full-throttle in the coming weeks.
At the same time, the trade is looking at theatres reopening and the business of cinema reviving.
This explains why the industry cheered the announcement of the theatrical release of Akshay Kumar’s ‘Bell Bottom’ on July 27.
However, with the Delta Plus variant of the virus threatening to bring life to a standstill again with a third wave and Maharashtra already imposing the Level 3 protocols across the state, will the film manage to meet its date with the theatres? Even if theatres open, as they did after the first wave of the outbreak, one didn’t see the audience thronging to the box office.
So, what makes the trade so positive about a better run this time? Also, with theatres reopening will the OTT bubble burst? ETimes spoke to producers, exhibitors, and OTT platforms to find out their take on release strategies amidst the unlocking.
Here’s what they had to say:
THE FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN
Exhibitor Akshaye Rathi, who has been hopeful about the reopening of theatres and businesses returning to normal for a long time now, is expecting clarity from the government.
“Despite being home to the entertainment industry, the state government of Maharashtra has done absolutely nothing for the entertainment sector.
Other states have put forth relief in the form of waiving off electricity or property taxes.
It’s disheartening to see what’s happening.
While the medical pandemic needs to be controlled, the economic pandemic which is surfacing right now needs to be checked too,” he fumes.
And what about films that were eyeing a release in the coming weeks? “As an exhibitor, I’ll hope the films that have the ability to hold on, continue to do so.
At the same time, I understand that some producers might not be able to, and I won’t hold it against them.
However, we have seen that films that take the theatre-OTT-satellite route optimise their returns.
It’s all about putting your eggs in different baskets,” he adds.
Sanjay Bhandari, a film finance consultant, points out that South has already had a good inning of theatrical business during the first quarter of 2021, unlike Bollywood.
“Now it’s Bollywood turn to start a theatrical run post lockdown 2.0, with the hero of the film ‘2.0’, he chuckles, referring to Akshay Kumar.
Sanjay goes on to add how the first release will serve as a litmus test to determine how comfortable the audience is with returning to theatres and thus act as a marker of the success of upcoming releases.
“Theatrical releases come with an additional cost as compared to digital releases.
For theatrical release, the maker has to spend on marketing, publicity, distribution, which costs around Rs 20-25 crore for any big film.
To recover this cost, a film has to do a minimum business of Rs 50 crore at the box office.
It is a very challenging situation and only time will tell what can happen,” he sighs, adding that the threat of a third wave might deter people from lining up for movie tickets.
“The continuity of the pandemic has also adversely impacted the purchasing power of millions of people,” he reasons.
HOPE MAKES THE WORLD GO ROUND
Devang Sampat of Cinepolis is hopeful that with the drop in the number of Covid cases, cinemas will re-open soon.
“The state government will have to take a call on reopening of theatres but we are very happy that a big film like ‘Bell Bottom’ will release in theatres.
We will start with Hollywood and regional films as we already have a big lineup of those films and an Akshay Kumar film will make a lot of difference,” he asserts, adding, “In India and also globally it is seen if a theatre has reopened with new content, the performance has been good.
Even the data shows that 80 per cent of the audience wants to return to cinemas as there is pent-up demand, and here we have 32 big-budget films ready for release!”
When Sampat talks about upcoming releases, he is referring to films like ‘Sooryavanshi’, ‘’83’, ‘Tadap’, ‘Maidaan’, ‘Jersey’, ‘Laal Singh Chaddha’, and ‘Radhe Shyam’, which are slated for release this year.
This is also what has producer Murad Khetani excited.
“The fact that a superstar like Akshay Kumar has announced a theatrical release only goes to make it more exciting.
Previously, South saw a mega-blockbuster in ‘Master’ and also a few other films that released earlier this year.
This only gives other producers like us all the more confidence because we too are waiting for a theatrical release of our film ‘Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2’,” he gushes.
LET’S TALK BUSINESS
Karan Taurani of Elara Capital says the announcement of ‘Bell Bottom’ in theatres clearly indicates that large films are better suited for cinemas.
He said, “Producers have realised theatres’ potential as also the fact that direct OTT/TVOD models do not offer proper scale or monetisation.
Monetisation is attractive only if there is a fixed premium pay-out by the platform owner at the latter’s risk.
Producers have also realised that overseas markets, too, have opened up more as compared to six months ago,” he avers, adding that the release and the cinemas opening up in July 2021 are in line with their views that Wave II unlock will unleash at a faster clip versus that in Wave I when cinemas were allowed to open only from October-November 2020.
“Hollywood productions, ‘Black Widow’, ‘Fast & Furious 9’ are slated to release in July and August respectively, which should further prop exhibitors’ content pipeline,’’ he enthuses.
Producer Dr Jayantilal Gada, who has half a dozen films lined up for release, is banking on the boredom of the audience to make a killing at the box office.
Pointing out that a cup of coffee is more expensive than a trip to the theatres, he adds that they will benefit from the fact that cinemas are the cheapest form of entertainment for a population fatigued of staying home.
“The exhibitors have suffered a lot in this pandemic.
But studios like ours are taking the risk and bringing films that no one can ignore,” he smiles.
However, Gada also expects cooperation from the exhibitors now.
“They were very powerful and believed that films cannot be released without multiplexes.
So, they even dominated percentage sharing.
But now we are in a pandemic market.
That has to be taken into consideration and they have to go softer.
In this pandemic, the digital market has grown and the satellite prices have gone down.
So, there needs to be a correction with multiplexes too.
And they also know there is no business for them without films,’’ he shrugs.
WHAT HAPPENS TO OTT NOW?
While Gada is not in favour of films releasing on OTT platforms, he agrees that it is all on a case-to-case basis.
“A small film made in Rs 10 crore would normally be out of cinemas within a week; if they wait for long, the chance of getting revenue from digital platforms starts reducing.
Whether theatrical or OTT, releases should be determined based on the merit of a film.
After the film is out of cinemas, there has to be a cooling period of 15 days and has to go straight to digital.
They should also allow others to do business.
Why should you put conditions on the digital release of a film? You are not investing in the film and not taking any risk.
Had you invested only then you could put conditions? Also out of the 1000 films that release every year, they are getting business only from 10 per cent of those films.
So, why the conditions?’’ he argues.
Ask Shariq Patel, the Chief Business Officer at Zee Studios, if theatres reopening will threaten the exponential growth of the OTT space and he answers in the negative.
“On the contrary, there will be a steady flow of films that have a theatrical release which will give a fresh boost to OTT.
The overall film content flow has reduced over the last few months,” he points out, adding that Direct-to-Digital OTT films were far and few in 2019 and theatrical releases far outweighed the originals.
“We expect that to revert to the same numbers when theatres normalise.
We are a film studio and theatrical window remains our first choice.
Premium projects will continue to be sold to OTT and TV players,” he reveals.
Ramesh Taurani is in complete agreement with Patel.
“OTT existed even before the pandemic hit and the lockdown was imposed and will continue to coexist.
People will want both mediums.
However, makers might now decide where they want to release their films and make projects accordingly,” he predicts.
