Ahmedabad: Epidemiologists have warned that every satisfaction in obeying the Covid protocol can bring a steeper infection curve to the city if the new variant enters the disease scene.
This may be worse than the second which has tore Ahmedabad in the April-May period.
The executive summary of the Serosurvey Fimmth and the latest AMC states that a sample of 5,000 individuals is not enough to speculate about the status of herd’s immunity for the entire city.
The first serosurvey has considered 23,000 samples, the second analyzes 17,000 samples, while the third and fourth serosurvey each has almost 10,000 samples.
“It will be very premature to comment on herd immunity.
We have seen antibodies disappear from previously infected people,” said a senior AMC official.
The official added that the hope was that 75% of Amdavadis would receive their first vaccine dose before the third wave rate increased.
“Good vaccination coverage will limit the third wave to 5,300 cases, similar to the post-diwali phase of October-November,” the official said.
Ahmedabad had rolled out from the post-diwali surge in 2020.
Twenty days before the festival, between October 28 and November 16, the city recorded 3,700 cases of Covid and 46 deaths.
But between November 17 and December 6, cases rose 71% to 6,400 and 179 deaths were recorded.
The western part of the city, which bears the burden of the Diwali surge, has returned then shows a slight increase in antibodies.
The West Zone area recorded antibodies at 25% of people against 19% in the October round.
Likewise, the northwest zone and southwest posh see the seropralence of antibodies amounted to 28% and 29%, which is 10% and 11% higher than the October round.
“Last year, we were surprised when the majority of people where we found antibodies in July and August lost their immunity cover in October,” added AMC officials.
Areas in the South, Central and North Zones record a decline in populations with covid antibodies after Diwali.
AHD: Satisfaction can bring a disaster, warn experts
