Washington: Covid-19 may behave like other Cumnavirus common-cold in the next few years, influencing most small children who have not been vaccinated or affected by a virus, according to a study model published on Thursday.
The US-Norwegian team noted that because the severity of Covid-19 is generally lower among children, the overall burden of this disease is expected to decrease because the SARS-COV-2 virus becomes endemic in the global population.
“Following infection by SARS-COV-2, there has been a clear signature with the results and death that is getting worse with age,” said Ottar Bjornstad from the University of Oslo in Norway.
“However, our modeling results show that the risk of infection is likely to shift to younger children because the adult community becomes a good immune through vaccination or viral exposure,” he said.
This study, published in the journal Science Advances, noted that such changes have been observed on the Koronavirus virus and other influenza as they have appeared and then become endemic.
“Historical records of respiratory diseases show that the pattern of age incidents during the virgin epidemic can be very different from endemic circulation,” said Bjornstad.
“For example, the ongoing genomic work shows that the pandemic is 1889-1890, sometimes known as Asian or Russian flu – which killed one million people, especially adults over the age of 70 – may be caused by the emergence of the HCOV-OC43 virus, which is now It is an endemic, lightweight, light virus, infection that affects most children aged 7-12 months “he said.
Bjornstad, however, warned that if immunity to invest the Military SARS-COV-2 among adults, the burden of the disease can remain high in the group, although the previous virus exposure would reduce the severity of the disease.
“The empirical evidence of seasonal Koronavirus shows that previous exposure can only provide short-term immunity to invest in reinverting, allowing a recurring outbreak, this previous exposure can lead the immune system to provide protection against severe diseases,” Bjornstad said.
“However, research on Covid-19 shows that vaccination provides stronger protection than the exposure to the SARS-COV-2 virus, so we encourage everyone to be vaccinated as soon as possible,” he explained.
The team developed the “realistic (race)” mathematics model “that integrates demographics, the degree of social mixing, and the duration of the immunity infection and reduction of diseases to examine future potential scenarios for the occurrence of age and death expenses for Covid.
-19.
The researchers analyzed the burden of disease in direct, medium and long terms – each – 1, 10 and 20 years.
They also examined the burden of disease for 11 different countries – China, Japan, South Korea, Spain, England, France, Germany, Italy, US, Brazil and South Africa – which were different in their demographics.
The team uses data from the United Nations for each of these countries for parameters according to the model.
The team model assumes that the reproduction rate (R) – or transmission rate – on certain days is related to the amount of mobility that day.
This model also combines various scenarios for immunity, including independence and dependence on the severity of the disease in previous exposure, as well as short and long-term immunity.
“For many infectious respiratory diseases, the prevalence of the population surges during the virgin epidemic but then recedes in a reduced wave pattern when the spread of infection is revealed from time to time to endemic balance,” said Ruiyun Li, a Postdoctoral colleague at the University of Oslo.
“Depending on immunity and demographics, our race model supports this observed track.
This predicts a very different age structure at the beginning of the Covid-19 epidemic compared to endemic situations eventually,” he added.
The researchers noted that in a scenario.
Durable immunity, both permanently or at least 10 years, young people are predicted to have the highest level of infection because older individuals are protected from new infections with previous infections.
Jessica Metcalf, a Princeton professor, we, noted that this prediction tends to hold only if reinfection only produces a mild disease.
However, the burden of death over time can remain unchanged if primary infection does not prevent reinfection or reduce severe illness among parents, he added.