MUMBAI: The slow tapering of the second Covid-19 wave in Mumbai and Maharashtra has doctors and officials worried.
Dr Pradeep Awate, who heads the epidemiology cell of the state health department, told TOI, “We are close to the baseline of the second wave.” A senior Mantralaya official admitted there is widespread concern about the daily cases stagnating between 8,000 and 10,000.
“Most states, which saw a severe second wave such as Delhi and Karnataka, report low detections now.
Why not in Maharashtra?” he asked.
In Mumbai, too, senior doctors believe the local numbers won’t dip below 600 cases a day.
“Even if they do, it would be for a few days in between,” said a BMC doctor.
During the end of the first wave in December 2020-January, cases dropped to 300-plus on a couple of days before the second wave’s rise began in late February.
The reasons for the “thick tail”, according to experts, are not too clear.
It could range from accurate reporting of Covid data to the size of the state to the density of the population.
One of the theories discussed in Mantralaya is the different “peaking time” for different districts in Maharashtra.
Districts in Vidarbha were the first to report a surge in the second wave in February before the wave spread to the other districts.
“When cases in the first-hit districts reached a plateau, cases in others began to peak,” said a senior official.
At present, he added, six districts seem to be in the midst of a peak.
“Kolhapur, Sangli, Sindhudurg and Osmanabad account for 60% of the daily cases reported in Maharashtra now,” he added.
The reasons for the “thick tail” in Mumbai could be a mix of more testing, better reporting and population density.
BMC additional commissioner Suresh Kakani said, “It could be due to our huge population density or the floating population.” Statistics released by Western Railway show that 28 lakh people returned to Maharashtra, including 7.8 lakh to Mumbai, in the May-June period.
A doctor from a government-run hospital provides a statistical answer based on the average number of tests conducted in Maharashtra daily.
“We conduct roughly 2.5 lakh tests daily.
Given our population size and failure of people to adhere to Covid-appropriate behaviour, one can presume that we will at least witness a 2% positivity daily.
This works out to 5,000 cases on the best day which hasn’t yet come,” he said.
The lowest daily caseload during the first wave was 1,842 on January 25, but the number of daily tests at that time was around a third of the present count.