Pune: District Basic Reproduction Number (R) or R-zero (R0) for Covid-19 has dropped below 1, indicating that the second wave of pandemics is receding.
R-in vain in the three boundary components of Pune-Pune, the limit of Civic Pimpri Chinchwad and Pune Rural – sneaks below 1 in the week ended September 29, the health department data shows on Saturday.
While the R-zero value at the PMC limit fell to 0.96, he slipped to 0.94 in the PCMC area and 0.98 in the rural part.
During most periods in August this year, this value is 1 or more for these two or three units.
R0 shows the average number of people who can catch infection from one sick person.
R0 must be below 1 for a pandemic to recede.
R0 is more than 1 worrying because it means that every infected individual will spread infection to more than one person.
Therefore, the value of less than 1 is needed to stop the spread of the virus.
According to the British Medical Journal, R0 is used to predict the initial curve, surge, and epidemic removal.
Dr.
Sanjay Deshmukh, Assistant Director (Medical), Pune Circle, told TII, “R0 in epidemiology understands the pathogenesis of viruses and epidemics.
The direction of the next outbreak can be predicted to use this value.
If R0 is 1, that means the number of patients is stable.
Great than 1, this shows an increase in the patient’s population.
When it is less than 1, it shows fewer number of patients infected.
“Dr.
Deshmukh said that the progressive R0 (because of the peak) declined, it showed that the wave had decreased significantly.
“At present, R0 in Ahmednagar is higher than Pune, indicated by the increased Covid case there.
Some factors have helped bring down R0 Pune, including compliance with the appropriate behavior of Covid, the control of the disease, higher host immunity, increased vaccination, among others , “he said.
Senior epidemiologist Dr.
Amitav Banerjee told TII that its value was applied at the overall population level and not at the individual level.
“When R0 is less than 1, it shows that infected people may not infect further because the people around them have immunity due to natural infections or vaccinations.
This number is less than 1 show a scenario where, although there may be a case of sporadic in a community , they may not be in the group or cause a local surge, “he added.
Banerjee said to arrive at R0, the index case in the outbreak was identified and through contacts, the calculation was carried out in how many cases had been infected.
“The second wave has been connected to the spread of a wide infection because of the Delta SARS-COV-2 variant.
Most of the population is infected, encouraging natural immunity, which contributes to R0 reduction, among others, natural immunity is stronger because an individual is exposed to all viruses instead of the part From it (as in the case of getting a vaccine), “he said.
He said natural immunity would also provide protection from future variants because no matter how much virus mutated, it did not mutate more than 1% of the original composition.
“So, 99% of the variant will be really the same as the original version of the virus,” said Banerjee further.
Covid-19: R-Nirk Pune Value fell below 1
