Guwahati: The silk math model supported by the center to track the development of the Covid-19 pandemic in India in its latest report has stated that the third wave has peaked in Assam on January 22, five days earlier, the predicted date.
Silk, which is an acronym for a vulnerable approach, not detected, tested (positive), and deleted written by Anurag Agrawal, Igib, Manindra Agrawal, Iit-Kanpur, Garg Pramod, Thsti, Madhuri Kanitkar, Muhs and M Vidyasagar, IIT-Hyderabad .
The model says that the third wave has peaked on January 25, two days after the predicted date, in the country one of the main parameters is ‘contact level’, which measures how quickly the pandemic spreads in an area and “increases because people who do not follow Safety protocols and mutants are more contagious “and” reduced due to safety protocols.
” The second key parameters are ‘detection factors’, which measures the ratio between detected (tested + ve) and the actual case.
This parameter “reduced when the number of patients without symptoms increases, the pandemic reaches an inaccessible area, and testing is reduced” and increases when the test level rises significantly.
The third parameter ‘reaches’ measuring the population fraction where the pandemic is active.
The report states that this factor is “very small at first and usually increases with time”, “increasing rapidly when there are many movements throughout the region, many people come out of isolation ‘and’ capture the loss of immunity and immunity caused by vaccination.
‘Report it says that for omicron variants, key factors are “losing immunity” and “high contact levels.” It adds to the loss of immunity is “the most important factor in the resurrection of the omicron case” and “the peak time does not depend too much on losing immunity and so it can Predicted with a better precision.
“The model also marks” phase changes “in each area, which is” indicative of significant changes in one or more parameter values ​​”the report said that almost all regions show phase changes between January 9 and 15 and data shows that this phase change is caused by a reduction in the level of contact.
According to the plot, ” The new phase has begun to stabilize in some places “and at present, the new phase shows some overall stability and among countries in Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan.