Lucknow: Chasing Covid-19 Prevention and Vaccination as the only reliable weapon against Covid-19, Prof.
Manindra Agarwal from the Indian Technology Institute (IIT-K) on Monday said big cities like Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata are almost a week Far from the top of the third wave of Coronavirus Pandemi.
On the basis of its findings in the preliminary data assessed under the silk model, Prof.
Agarwal said: “The numbers showed that the peak in Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata were estimated to be around January 15.
But the peak for the whole country was expected between January.
-D.
And the first week February.
There are indications that India can report about eight lakh cases a day.
We hope the third wave will subside in mid-March.
“Sutra (vulnerable, undetectable, tested (positive), and the deleted approach) is a mathematical model that tracks the covid pandemic curve -19.
Adequate input data helps in predicting a pandemic wave pattern called policy makers for detention and preparedness purposes.
Prof.
Agarwal says carefully is a must but does not need to panic.
“The waves will rise quickly and subside quickly.
This means that while no need to panic, prevention measures are very important,” he said.
“Our guess for the peak value of Mumbai is around 30,000-60,000 cases per day (based on an average of seven days).
This looks great but because around 3.5% of patients need hospitalization, one can believe that the requirements for the bed at the top of the peak will be around 10,000 that must be managed, “he added.
Speaking of Delhi, Prof.
Agarwal said the pandemic would peak in the national capital around January 15.
“Delhi is likely to report 35,000-70,000 cases per day (based on an average value of seven days) at the peak.
This translates to a requirement of around 12,000 beds,” he said.
He said that despite the calculation for Uttar Pradesh was underway, the peak was expected in the last week of January.
Asked about the possible impact of increasing public activity during the election of the pace of pandemic, he said: “Great public meetings during the election will naturally contribute to a surge.
But that is not the only reason for a surge.
We can say this because we get similar results while comparing results In the scenario – with and without selection.
However, all precautions must be taken in public interest.
“