New Delhi: The third wave peak of Covid-19 in India is expected to arrive at the end of this month with everyday case four to eight lakh (on average seven days) and the peak in Delhi and Mumbai is estimated to be around mid-January with a daily case of 50,000-60,000 And 30,000 odd cases (on average seven days), respectively, said IIT Kanpur Professor Manindra Agrawal, who led the government-supported silk model to mathematically predict the spread of the virus, on Sunday.
The model always indicates that the fall will also be sharper in the case of a sharp increase in the number of cases – that means the number of cases will fall rapidly as the overall country and cities reach their respective peaks.
Agrawal, however, said the silk model currently does not have “right data” in the third wave to be able to make accurate predictions for India as a whole.
“Predicting for India is currently more difficult because the model has not been able to capture the phase now,” Agrawal tweeted two days ago.
On Sunday, he said, “We have to wait for three – four days until we can provide more precise predictions (at the top of India).” But, he seems more confident in the peak prediction for Delhi and Mumbai which might occur one week from now.
The “The (Silk) model has a more appropriate answer for these two cities,” he said.
“Overall, this wave appeared managed because of the low level of hospitalization that the terms of the bed could peak around 1.5 lakh at the level of the entire India while it could be” less than 12,000 “in Delhi.
Professor did not see a direct relationship between the increase in cases and demonstrations Election.
Referring to the study of the past election during the pandemic phase, he said that the selection rally only one of the many things that caused waves spread.
“What is needed is not to focus on one thing but to have a focus on the entire board,” said Agrawal.