NEW DELHI: India’s economy is estimated to grow by 11.5% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year and expand in the range of 8.4% to 10.1% for 2021-22, economic think National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said on Friday.
“However, these high growth rates are also a reflection of strong base effect since FY22:Q1 follows the very steep decline in 2020–21:Q1.
At the end of 2021–22 GDP, in constant prices, would still be about the same as Rs 146 trillion as in 2019–20,” according to the quarterly review of the economy unveiled by Sudipto Mundle, NCAER’s senior fellow Bornali Bhandari, and NIPFP assistant professor Rudrani Bhattacharya.
This is one of the first estimates for the April-June quarter of 2021-22.
It said the second Covid–19 wave, four times greater in ferocity compared to the first wave in terms of number of cases and deaths, has further disrupted the growth process, which had already been severely damaged by the first wave.
High frequency indicators show a sharp decline in economic activity during April, May 2021 — the peak of the second Covid–19 wave, though there are some indicators of recovery in June as unlocking proceeds, said the review.