WASHINGTON: US President Joe Biden has several real diplomatic alternatives to try to persuade Iran to continue adherence to the 2015 nuclear agreement and everything seems more difficult to achieve, the current and previous European official said.
Indirect talks from AS-Iran about reviving the agreement have been postponed since the last round ended on June 20 and Iran has explained that it is not ready to continue before the President of Iran-chosen Ebrahim Relisi took over in August.
Hiatus, which we and European official attributes for the selection of hard-line clerics, have asked questions about the next step if the conversation reaches a dead end.
The US State Department has admitted that it might need to rethink its attitude.
The problem is that experts agree there are several options for the 2015 agreement where Tehran limits its nuclear program to make it more difficult to obtain nuclear weapons – the ambitions are rejected – in exchange for assistance from economic sanctions.
“I think all alternatives are worse for us.
I think they are worse for Iran.
And frankly, I think, in the end, Iran will suffer – I don’t know whether they suffer more than we want – but they will be in a situation The bad, “said Senior US officials to Reuters with anonymity requirements.
“That is why we argue now for some time that the best choice is a strict return for compliance with (agreement).
That’s our analysis,” US official said.
Washington will do all that to revive the deal, the official said, but added, “We must be prepared to live with alternatives.” When former US President Donald Trump left the agreement, named the joint comprehensive action (JCPOA), he regulated US sanctions, which mostly lost Tehran to his ability to export oil and have caused economic misery in Iran.
‘More for more, less than an alternative to JCPoa, who used to be called US and European officials “more for more,” will require Iran to receive a greater limit on its nuclear and maybe a greater sanction activity.
It is likely to be more difficult to negotiate a wider agreement than restore the 2015 agreement, whose parameters are at least defined, even if they may need to tamper to reflect the expanded Iranian nuclear work since the transfer of the agreement.
The “more-more” version will limit negotiations with the tradeoff between limiting Iran’s nuclear program and reducing economic sanctions.
The broader version and Thornier will require Iran also limit the ballistic missile program and support for regional proxies, Iranian officials say they will not cross.
The second alternative, sometimes called less-less, may require fewer limitations to Iran’s nuclear program in return for fewer sanctions assistance.
This is probably the worst of the two worlds for Biden, because he can be criticized for providing Iran’s economic benefits and getting fewer nuclear boundaries in return.
“A weaker agreement than 2015 will be politically unsustainable in the US,” said Gerard Araud, former French Ambassador to the United States.
“I don’t see alternatives from JCPOA besides ‘maximum pressure’ but this regime has shown resistance and I don’t see it budge for it,” he added.
He referred to Trump’s policy to increase economic pressure on the expectations of Iran will be acceptable.
Tehran, for its part, has caused pressure on Washington by starting the process to make enriched uranium metal and by talking about enriching uranium to 90 percent, or a weapons class – both steps that can help make nuclear arms.
A senior diplomat involved in talks said it was very important to convince the Relision team that hoped they could negotiate a nuclear limit for sanction assistance, which was equivalent to “less,” misplaced.
“They might think when they are on their side,” he said with anonymous requirements.
If it’s the problem, he said, “they are wrong.” Former Middle Eastern Specialist US Government Dennis Ross said Tehran would likely continue to push Washington by expanding his nuclear program.
“When they decide the administration has reached what limit (will) admit, I suspect you will see the agreement that rearranged Jcpoa,” Ross said.
Even though talking about options in Iran, the US has some good ones
