Chennai: Two gross statistical errors made by the Directorate of Public Health have mistakenly projected 62% of the population of Tamil Nadu as relatively safe for Covid-19 infection.
Public health experts are now afraid of this claim may not only underestimate risk but also have a drastic impact on policies, plans and funding departments received in the midst of anticipated the third wave.
The analysis by TOI shows that the number coverage of Fudged DPH vaccination is in its daily report to the state government against the coverage of hype to 30%, although only half of it is in fact.
For example, on July 20, the vaccination coverage report said that from 6.06 adult crore that qualified in the state, 1.49 crore people had taken the first dose and 34.22 lakh had taken the second dose.
This means that almost 25% of the population has taken the first dose and 6% have taken the second dose.
So, how did the Directorate claim 30%? A senior official in the public health department said they only added the number of people who took the first dose and the number of people who considered the two doses to show the number of doses that had been completed.
Epidemiologists showed that in the case, officials must divide the calculation with a dose target, which is twice the population because everyone gets two doses of vaccines.
The target dose, in this case, will be 16%, only half of what government claims.
This is because it is less than 2 12-crore doses given until July 20.
“This is misinterpreting data, which can cause serious problems when data is used to plan health policies, including canceling the key strategy and precautionary measures to anticipate the third wave,” said Public Health Expert R Sunerraman, former director of the National Health System Resources Center.
“Everyone knows there is a lack of vaccines.
What’s wrong in saying the right number?” He said.
Data reporting is getting worse when DH technology uses an unscientific method to add serosurvey results to tidy up the number of people with antibodies.
Two vaccine doses help people develop artificially induced antibodies that give them protection against viruses.
But people who are naturally infected also develop these antibodies.
The country has done three serosurves to measure antibodies in people.
The first survey was conducted in 2020 before the vaccine launch, showed 32% of people had antibodies.
Senior microbiologists such as Dr.
Gagandeep Kang from the Velore Institute of Medical Sciences previously told TOI that the seropositive and vaccination rates could not be added, because some seropositive individuals would be vaccinated later.
“Even with high levels of seropocytivity and vaccination, we still have a large population that is not protected.
But it will, hopefully, it is reduced by increasing the coverage of vaccines over time,” he said.
The state has added this number to the number of people who are vaccinated to show that 62% of people have developed antibodies.
The percentage of people with antibodies fell to 23% in the second phase carried out in April.
Comprehensive results from the third phase, which is expected to be higher than the first two phases, still not available.