Mumbai: Indian GDP will grow at 8.5 percent in 2021-22, and the level will accelerate further to 9.8 percent in 2022-23, a foreign broker said on Tuesday.
GDP has been contracted by 7.3 percent on the FY21 hit pandemic, and is widely expected to grow at a faster speed due to basic effects in 2021-22.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects 9.5 percent growth in 2021-22, and the same to slow to 7.8 percent as normalized.
“We hope to consume an important contributor to growth in 2022, because the economy is fully open driven by prominent improvement in viral situations and adequate progress in vaccination,” Goldman Sachs said in a report.
It hopes that government capital expenses to continue, newborn signs of the recovery of private company capital expenditure (capex), and resurrection of housing investment.
American brokers set the FY23 growth number to be higher, making the analys analys analyze among the few expect acceleration of growth even after the basic effects run out.
Previously on that day, analyst at British Brokerage Barclays said FY22 growth will come at 10 percent, and the same will slow down to 7.8 percent in FY23.
Goldman Sachs said that when growth pursues behind, the RBI will begin normalization of its policies, and the expected cumulative level increase of 0.75 percent by 2022.
The central bank is currently in the second stage of the process of normalizing the four-stage policy, which starts.
With comments ‘Less Dovish’ from the tariff setting panel and will end with an increase in repo interest rates, he added.
Along with the same view, Barclays also said the policy had shifted to be less accommodating and there would be an increase in the reverse repo level on future policy reviews in December, which will be followed by an increase in interest rates next year.
Barclays said Indian policy makers have focused on managing growth risk over the past three years, emphasizing that the decline has begun before the emergence of the pandemic itself, and adding that the focus will now shift to manage concerns of financial stability.
Inflation will decrease in the second half of next year after being increased and can produce appropriate actions by the RBI, he said.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect the inflation of major consumer prices to increase to 5.8 percent by 2022 from 5.2 percent by 2021.