Mumbai: The Indian Medical Research Council (ICMR) plans to provide Covid-19 preparedness simulators that have been developed for all states to enable them to prepare themselves efficiently for Covid waves in the future.
Simulator uses local epidemiological data to project the possibility of a surge in Covid case.
Epidemiological data State or district can be given a specific projection of countries from other waves, which can be used to plan the actions and resources needed, Dr.
Samiran Panda, Senior Scientist and the Head of the ICMR epidemiology and infectious disease division, told TII.
For example, Panda said after stating feeding data into the simulator, they would be able to see the possible third wave graphic form, and assess the requirements for the bed, oxygen, among others.
“This is a simple calculator, easy to use,” he said.
Panda emphasizes the need for each country to have a covid wave graph that might occur.
“The second wave has the development of different diseases in various countries, which underlined the heterogeneous properties of pandemic.
The surge or the average specific case of the state will not serve the purpose of the country or regency.
Models that can project a special future surge for smaller local geographical areas, “Panda said.
The second wave time is too different from the country to the country, which is why local projections are important.
“Once the district or state authorities are informed of the upcoming waves, the appropriate micro detention measures can be adopted, including the prevention of the spread of infection from an area, where the surge is expected, to other regions,” he said.
The online tool will use data on various covid parameters, such as transmission rates, symptomatic infections, relative infections of asymptomatic infections versus symptomatic, vaccination status in the population, the level of capita where plantations post infection, mortality rates, among others.
It will also use state variables and create projections based on the characteristics of the first and second wave.
This model will describe the shape and height of all upcoming waves, ICMR scientists told TII.
The recent model is used to predict the severity of the third wave in India.
This is called chromic health research – collaborative about modeling by ICMR and Imperial College models.
Panda said the simulator was based on a deterministic model, the SARS-COV-2 transmission compartment.