Washington: Persistent supply chain disorders and inflationary pressures limit the global economic recovery from the Pandemic Covid-19, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday for cutting the prospect of growth of the United States and the main industrial power.
In the economic prospect of his world, the IMF cut 2021 global growth estimates to 5.9% of the 6.0% estimate he made in July.
It left the 2022 global growth forecast that did not change at 4.9%.
“Revised this simple title, however, covered a major downgrade for several countries,” the IMF said in the report, added that the deteriorating pandemic dynamics had embezzled low-income economic prospects, while rich countries struggled with supply disruptions.
The IMF said it expected increased inflation to subside to the pre-pandemic level in 2022.
But the Chief of the IMF economist, Gita Gopinath, indicated that the global lender was increasingly related to continuous inflation, “the central bank must be ready to act quickly.
If risk The increase in inflation expectations becomes more material in this uncharted recovery.
“Gopinath, speaking in a virtual news conference, the policy maker said it must be” very vigilant “for signs that wage inflation spread wider than certain sectors and whether price increases Housing contributes to the de-anchor of inflation expectations.
But he warned against the comparison with the style of the 1970s “Stagflation,” noted that the underlying demand was strong, and the problem was mainly on the supply side.
Global manufacturing activities have been slammed with the incompatibility of the demands and lack of key components such as semiconductors, clogged ports and lack of cargo containers, and the work crisis as a global supply chain that is optimized for efficiency remains messy after the shutdown induced last year.
US growth slowdown in the United States took the burden of these effects, and the IMF cut the US growth forecast with a full percentage point, to 6.0%, from 7.0% in July – a level that was seen as the strongest step since 1984.
US growth can shrink further, the IMF said, because his estimate considers a very divided US Congress will approve President Joe Biden who proposed infrastructure and social expenditure worth $ 4 trillion over a decade.
Parliamentarians are now trying to reach consensus in smaller packages, and the IMF said significant reductions would reduce growth prospects for the United States and its trading partners.
The report, which was issued at the beginning of the IMF and World Bank meetings, also reduced growth estimates for other industrial economics.
German growth was reduced by half the percentage points of July estimates to 3.1% while Japanese growth was reduced by 0.4 points to 2.4%.
The IMF forecast for British growth this year only fell 0.2 points to 6.8%, providing the fastest growth estimate among the G7 economy.
The growth forecast of 2021 China was cut by 0.1 points to 8.0%, because the IMF quoted scaleback public investment expenses that were faster than expected.
Indian forecasts have not changed at 9.5%, but the prospects in Asian countries that appeared to be reduced by worsening pandemic.
The IMF cut an estimate of 1.4 points for the grouping of “ASEAN-5” in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.
Some commodity exporting countries such as Nigeria and Saudi Arabia see a simple increase in growth due to higher oil and commodity prices.
The vaccine divides the report also warns of dangerous differences in the economic outlook driven by “the division of large vaccines,” with low-income countries, where 96% of the population remains not vaccinated, facing lower growth, more poverty, and prospects for expectations anched inflation.
“About 65 million to 75 million additional people are estimated in extreme poverty in 2021 compared to pre-pandemic projections,” said the report, added that low-income countries mostly in Africa needed around $ 250 billion in additional expenditures to fight Covid – 19 and regain their pre-pandemic growth path.
At present, these countries are expected to have cumulative output next year which is 6.7% below the pre-pandemic level.
The economy advanced, meanwhile, will have 2022 output almost 1% above the pre-pandemic level, the IMF said.