PATNA: Will the much-talked-about third Covid-19 wave be stronger than the second one or will it be milder than the previous two waves? Health experts of the state have varying opinions on the issue.
Though the experts agreed that the third wave would certainly hit the state in November or December, they differed on its severity.
While some felt that it is likely to be more intense, others observed that it would be a milder one as compared to the deadly second wave.
Paediatrician Dr Arun Shah said the intensity of the third wave would depend on the rate of vaccination.
“With less than 3% of the country’s population having been fully vaccinated till date, the danger of the third wave would persist unless the vaccination drive is implemented aggressively both in rural and urban areas.
The regulations on import of effective vaccines available in the international market must be made simpler and the job of vaccination should be handed over to both the private and public sectors,” he said.
Dr Shah added lockdowns can minimise the spread of infections for a while only.
“As a large section of adults and children are still to be vaccinated, they are non-immune and can easily contract infections in the third wave.
The third wave may bring more miseries and deaths if people are attacked with mutant variants with greater infectivity and higher virulence,” he added.
Former superintendent of Patna Medical College and Hospital (PMCH) Dr Rajiv Ranjan Prasad said it is good that necessary preparations for protection against the third wave have already started, but people need not panic over its consequences.
“Some countries like Japan have already witnessed three to four waves.
However, nowhere it has been found that only children have been hit,” he added.
Dr Prasad said mostly every fresh wave is supposed to be weaker than the previous one (except in case of the second wave in India).
“The virus, when it emerges, has a relatively free run, considering that the entire population is susceptible.
During its subsequent runs, there would be a far lower number of susceptible people because some of them would have gained immunity.
Moreover, more and more people are getting vaccinated and search for a vaccine for children is already on,” he added.
Principal of Govt Ayurvedic College-Patna, Dr Dineshwar Prasad, said the third wave would have weaker intensity as compared to the second wave.
“Children have got a relatively higher immunity level and, hence, they have lower chances of serious infection.
But, as they have remained confined to their homes for more than a year, their immunity level has somehow weakened.
A nationwide campaign should be launched to boost children’s immunity and save them from any kind of infection,” he said.
Patna University biotechnology teacher Birendra Prasad said as the virus needs some hosts, children would be the most easily found hosts in the third wave.
“Children would be more susceptible if they are not vaccinated properly during the next six to eight months.
A lot would, however, depend on how people heed the warnings being made by health experts.
The second wave has taught us that it is far better to remain cautious and alert for the imminent third wave and get all family members, particularly the youths, vaccinated at the earliest,” he added.