39 of 56 matches of the IPL 2021 league are now finished.
Only two of the eight teams are convincing qualifications and because things stand CSK and DC must take the top two slots after the league stage, their last ranked depends on which team more winning (both teams have 4 matches remaining).
But mathematically, even a team like Sunrisers Hyderabad is still in a race for four play-off playgrounds, despite their chances of qualifying more than 1%.
For all practical purposes, we can see four teams against it for one place in the top four on the days to come.
Shankar Raghuraman Toi has done calculations to show the probability of each qualifying team after Sunday’s match, assuming that in every match given the opportunity to win or lose is 50-50, indeed a large assumption given by several teams.
This analysis also ignores the net running rate, because, with four to five games remaining for each team, NRR is now more than likely to change significantly.
Here are all possible playoffs for all 8 teams as things that stand now, with 17 league stage matches remaining to play: 1) CSK, which is at the top of the table now, guaranteed qualification and has a chance of 96.7%.
finishing in the top two slots 2) DC, which is tied with CSK on points but below it at the level of running clean, also guaranteed qualifications and has a 95% chance for finishing in two 3) RCB, currently the third place with 12 points, has a chance of 94 , 9% for finishing in the top four both singly and together but only a 26% chance to end in one of the top two slots 4) forbid these three teams, no other team is better.
Instead of even the opportunity to make it to the Playoff 5) KKR, the team currently in fourth place, has a 36% chance to make it one of the four top four slots or together.
This can complete no better than the second and the opportunity to do it is only 0.7% 6) PK, such as the KKR, has a 36% chance to create a playoff and cannot add a table.
The opportunity for finishing in second place is only 0.9% 7) RR is currently in sixth place, but at the same point as KKR and PK with one extra match in hand, their chances of making playoffs better than at 55%.
They can even add a table and have a 4% chance for finishing in two slots 8) MI is a level on points and games with KKR and PK and also have a 36% chance to qualify and there are no topping opportunities.
Like their two teams their chance to finish in the top two less than 1% at 0.7% 9) SRH still does not come out of it mathematically and the results of Sunday has actually increased their chances of finishing in the top four or together or together -Imama, for 1.1%.
But they cannot do better than the third position and their chance to do it is only 0.05% or one in 2,000.
If SRH loses to RR today, then they will be fine and truly out of the race for the playoffs.
10) For all practical purposes, CSK, DC and RCB guaranteed qualifications (95% of the third possibilities make it) and what happens to be contested now is one of the top four top slots What are the possible playoffs at the end of September 25? Find outhere.