Nagpur: Even after starting Covid vaccination programme 178 days ago, less than 9% of the total population in the district has been fully inoculated.
If the number of people, who had contracted the virus and gained some immunity after recovering from it, is taken into account, then less than 16% people in the district have got some protection against Covid-19.
Experts are wary over the lesser number of people having immunity, which they feel will not be able to prevent or keep the projected third wave low if the virus happens to be more infectious and virulent compared to the one which led to the second wave.
As per the data of state’s public health department, 14,63,187 (27.75%) out of estimated population of 52,72,665 have taken the first dose in the district between January 16 and July 12.
Also, 4,62,804 (8.77%) have got the second dose.
As per the data of civil surgeon, 3.53 lakh people had contracted the virus in the last six months and they also have some immunity because of the antibodies generated in their body.
Thus, around 8.16 lakh people are likely to have immunity either from the infection or vaccination, which comes to 15.45% of the total population.
As on date, 274 vaccination centres are being operated in the district — 146 by Nagpur Municipal Corporation (NMC) in city, 11 by private hospitals and 117 by zilla parishad in rural areas.
Around 80,000 people can be inoculated daily at these centres, each having capacity of vaccinating around 300 per day.
Around 39,23,391 people from the district are eligible for vaccination as they are above 18 years of age, reveals the PHD data.
Had the district seen vaccination of 50,000 people per day, all eligible persons would have received the first dose within 80 days from the start of the inoculation drive on January 16.
However, due to limited production followed by shortage of doses, the government had rolled out the vaccine in phased manner beginning with healthcare workers (HCWs) followed by frontline workers (FLWs), 60-plus along with 45-plus comorbids, all above 45 years and lastly 18-plus.
Since the roll out of vaccination for 45-plus on April 1, there has been irregular and insufficient supply of vaccine, which has hampered the programme badly.
Private hospitals have facilitated all three vaccines Covishield, Covaxin and Sputnik V in the city from May 31 onwards, but not many have preferred the paid jabs.
Convener of Vidarbha Hospitals Association Dr Anup Marar said, “Only 27% of total population had first dose till date of which only 31% have taken the second dose.
If we consider 4.6 lakh people as fully vaccinated vis-à-vis 52.73 lakh population in the district, it statistically projects a very grave picture.” “These extremely poor numbers show only around 8% of the total population as fully vaccinated.
We should have vaccinated at least 70% of the total population by now to limit mortality rate and control Covid admissions during the forthcoming third wave,” he said.
“The inconsistent availability of Covid vaccine and non-optimal involvement of private healthcare sector in the drive is serious.
People are now responsive and eager to get vaccinated.
Authorities should hasten all efforts to ensure ample vaccine availability, not only in all government health centres but also in all hospitals which functioned as Covid hospitals across the city so as to improve the vaccination rate,” he said.
Infectious diseases specialist Dr Nitin Shinde said, “We need a very high vaccination coverage to prevent the third wave.
Anything above 60% would have been satisfactory.
But actual vaccination coverage till date is very less.
Of the total vaccinated people, many were earlier infected with the disease.
Thus, the district now comprises non-immune population in large number.
Authorities should find out all unvaccinated geographical pockets across the district and cover all.” Pulmonologist Dr Rajesh Swarnakar, who is national secretary of Indian Chest Society, said, “First we concentrated on testing, testing and testing.
Vaccination is the only solution for this pandemic.
Therefore, focus should have been vaccine, vaccine and vaccine.
Unfortunately, only 5-6% of total population in the country is fully vaccinated.
It is not enough to get protection from the projected third wave.” “The number of immune people is very meagre and doesn’t matter much in the pandemic.
At least, 60% of total population should have antibodies against Covid-19.
The situation in rural areas is very bad compared to urban pockets.
It would not be wrong to say disaster on our doorstep if the virus during the third wave proves to be more infectious,” he said.
As vaccine trials on children below 18 years are underway at present, so there are least chances of the actual vaccine roll out for them before the projected third wave.
Average vaccination performance of the district is around 54,000 per day, if the data of the last three sessions is considered.
At this rate, the administration will need 45 more days to complete the first dose of the remaining 24.6 lakh eligible people.
Majority of the centres are administering Covishield, second dose of which can be taken only after 84 days.
Thus, five more months will be required if we have to complete the second dose of all beneficiaries, but this will be subject to daily availability of around 60,000 doses.