Pune: districts affected by the second Covid-19 wave may not see the third wave that is equally intense, analysis by the Indian Medical Research Council (ICMR) has said.
Experts from the body of the science of saying the state must now use the assessment of the district level heterogeneity – which includes variations in deployment and population – to plan public health measures adjusted for various regions.
“All districts in Maharashtra do not experience a second wave uniformly,” said Samiran Panda, the Head of the ICMR epidemiology and the division of infectious diseases.
“This is the need for hours to check the possibility of the third wave by considering biological parameters and main behavior.” Panda said countries such as Maharashtra must see the district level heterogeneity to formulate areas and actions that are in accordance with the population.
“Talking about ‘third wave’ throughout the state may not be able to help because all districts do not experience a second wave uniformly.
So, we need control of infection and regional infection management,” he said.
He said this also meant that districts that did not experience the second wave of intense can now have a large number of vulnerable people.
It is then important to increase steps such as vaccine coverage in this risky area, he added.
“It is very important to have a vaccine saturation among priority groups in these districts.
It is also important to create an environment that is not conducive to the spread of the virus because such areas may see the third wave that takes off from the second arms,” ​​he said.
Members of the task of Maharashtra Shashank Joshi called for wise district serosurvey, with a special focus on areas that are less affected during the second wave.
“We must have this data.
The Public Health Department has worked to gather information,” Joshi said.
He, however, said it is impossible to say when the third wave will come when a surge depends on behavior, vaccination coverage in solid residents and limitation levels.
“The dynamics of waves for local geography are different and basically, the virus does not follow simple mathematics, which is why there is a level of uncertainty,” Joshi said.
He added that while ICMR analysis appeared reasonable and logical, outliers were a concerned variant.
“We cannot estimate deltas at all,” he said.