Pune: Small fluctuations in the climate can cause large-scale socio-economic disorders, a recent study revealed.
Using records that stretched more than 220 years, this study found that only a 14% decrease in average annual rainfall which caused large-scale socio-economic disorders and human impact more than two centuries ago in semi-dry parts in India (then Bombay and Madras Presidency under the British government).
This study was conducted by climate scientists from the University of Colorado-Boulder, USA, a tropical meteorological institute based in Pune (IITM), among others.
Recently published in the International Journal Nature.
This study assumes significance, especially in the background of normal monsoons in India so far, and estimates the rainy season under the lower side of the season.
Based on findings, the researchers suggested that regardless of the extreme rainfall deficit, the assessment of climate change risk must also consider the potential impact of reducing low-level rainfall which is more frequently in reduced semi-dry areas in India.
Atreyee Bhattacharya, Senior Climate Scientist from the University of Colorado, told TII, “Hunger which caused severe loss disruptions and loss of more than 200 years ago in India was not caused by a severe deficit in rainfall.
This study, which analyzes the impact of climate variability In socio-economic conditions in two presidencies during the British government, it also shows that the climate cycle is dry, especially in the warm-up climate, it seems vulnerable to the annual rainfall reduction threshold of almost.
14%.
This is further exacerbated by colonial economic practices and policies, which leads to extreme negative socio-economic disorders that come with steep human costs.
“Bombay and Madras presidency during the British government stretched from Maharashtra in the West to Tamil Nadu in the south.
To arrive at the findings, the researchers turned to the 18-19th century British colonial documents, archived in the National Archives of India (NAI), De Delhi, and IMD.
They extracted information and mapping the results of hunger (both local and regional) to the top independent records of high resolution of rainfall variations (historical rainfall from IMD, reconstruction of tree rings and carbonate-based reconstruction of cave).
He said the recurring nature of hunger incidence during the 1800s, every 5-10 years, had a large socio-economic impact.
“Every time there is rainfall fluctuations, there will be hunger.
Thus, hunger caused by rainfall fluctuations is not a one-time incident.
There are almost 20 examples of hunger for 200 years, and every time, they cause a big impact, such as hunger and death, “He said.
Bhattacharya said the NAI document contained the chronological sequence of socio-economic stress triggered by ‘rain failure’, which lasted for at least one, but often two consecutive years caused harvest failure, the increase in wheat prices, food scarcity, hunger increased.
and mortality, slavery, epidemics, riots and deaths.