New Delhi: Although the normal rainfall forecast above in September, the Indian Meteorology Department (IMD) on Wednesday estimates that seasonal rainfall (June-September) as a whole in this country is very possible “normal lower end”.
Although IMD in June estimated the ‘normal’ monsoon for the country at 101% of the average period (LPA), a large deficit of 24.1% in August forced it to revise the previous prediction by updating it as “normal lower end.”, At 96 % LPA.
The cumulative seasonal rainfall from June-September was considered ‘normal’ when it fell at 96-104% LPA.
The seasonal rainfall LPA throughout the country as a whole for 1961-2010 is 880 mm.
However, good rainfall in September, however, becomes a savior because the new Ensemble Ensemble-based forecasting system developed by the IMD shows that the average rainfall throughout the country as a whole during September is most likely above normal (> 110% LPA ).
The rainfall LPA during September, based on data from 1961-2010, is around 170 mm.
“Given that the expected above the normal normal rainfall activity during September, the current shortcomings of 9% in season rainfall during June to August can reduce and collect seasonal rainfall (June 1 to September 30) very likely to be around the normal lower end , “Said Head of IMD, M Mohapatra, releasing the monsoon renewal and a monthly estimate for September.
Forecasts show that rainfall in the central part of the country tends to increase this month but northwest and northeast India, and the southern part in Semenular India may see rainfall “under normal to normal”.
The situation in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Western may be more depressed and fall into the ‘under normal’ category, dragging the overall monsoon to the “normal lower end” in June-September despite rainfall “above normal to normal”.
Central India this month.
Rainfall in Gujarat, West Rajasthan and Odisha are still lacking, making them face drought conditions.
“As a condition of sea level (SST) over the Pacific and the Indian Ocean is known to have a strong influence on the monsoon, the IMD carefully monitors the evolution of the surface conditions above the sea basin,” said Mohapatra.