PUNE: Monsoon could make an onset over Pune and Mumbai on Sunday or Monday, but its arrival at these cities could occur only after a week if rain dies out in the next couple of days.
Anupam Kashyapi, head of the weather forecasting division, IMD (India Meteorological Department), Pune, told TOI, “The monsoon onset criteria seem to be present in Pune with rain during the last couple of days, along with predominantly westerly winds and typical rainy clouds.
Monsoon seems to be knocking on Pune and Mumbai, but rain should continue 24-48 hours for an onset to be declared.” He said, “If Mumbai gets adequate rainfall on Sunday/Monday, the onset could occur simultaneously over Mumbai.
But if it does not make an onset over Pune and Mumbai in the next 48 hours, then it may only happen six to seven days later, as the rainfall activity over the state may reduce from June 7, till June 11.” IMD officials said the rainfall activity over south Konkan continued on Saturday, right up to Ratnagiri and Raigad, while Mumbai received traces of rainfall till 5.30pm.
The normal monsoon onset date for Pune is June 10, while it is June 11 for Mumbai.
Making fast progress over the west coast, monsoon made an onset over south Maharashtra, including Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri, Satara, Kolhapur, Sangli, Satara and Solapur, on Saturday — one to two days before the normal date.
Shivajinagar received 3mm rainfall from 8.30am till 5.30pm on Saturday, while Lohegaon received 34.1mm.
“All features of monsoon are present over Pune for declaration of its arrival in the city on Sunday.
However, adjacent areas of Marathwada, areas of north interior Karnataka, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh should also receive rain for the NLM (Northern Limit of Monsoon) line of continuity to run smoothly.
Clearer picture on the onset over Pune and Mumbai will emerge on Sunday,” he said.
Pune has a lightning and thunder, along with light to moderate rain, forecast for Sunday, followed by very light rain chances on Monday.
Mumbai has a possibility of light to moderate rain or thundershowers during the next 48 hours.
Kashyapi said monsoon had been quite active over west coast, particularly because of the off-shore trough at mean sea-level from south Maharashtra coast to south Kerala coast as well as the cyclonic circulation over east-central Arabian Sea, off Karnataka-Goa coasts.
“These systems have caused it to progress faster than usual over parts of south Maharashtra.
The southern part of Konkan and south Madhya Maharashtra have been receiving rainfall continuously for the last 48 hours till Saturday,” he said.
Rainfall activity in Maharashtra is likely to reduce significantly from June 7 till 11, during which the progress of monsoon in the state would be restricted for around seven days.
IMD on Saturday night said southwest monsoon was very likely to advance further into more central Arabian Sea, some more parts of Maharashtra, remaining parts of Karnataka, more parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, more parts of central and northeast Bay of Bengal, some parts of north east Bay of Bengal and northeast India during the next 24 hours.