Pune: When Delta produced 99.5% of all genome sequences throughout the world, its appearance in India in early December 2020 and the speed of the breakneck flowing through a solid population here for the next six months seems to have stopped ‘the severe waves that are currently experienced Europe, experts say.
Most of the variants today, including AY.4.2 tension, are offspring / descendants of the Delta variant, which compared to the Indian population is believed to have a large number of protection due to broad exposure in the past.
“The latest AY.4.2 tension comes from the Delta tension lineage.
It doesn’t seem to cause the main challenge,” Raman Gangakhedkar’s leading epidemiologist, former head of the epidemiology and distribution of infectious diseases from the Indian Medical Research Council (ICMR), said.
Gangakhedkar is part of an expert team of 26 members of the World Health Organization to check the origins of pathogens, such as SARS-COV-2.
He is also a national chair from CG Pandit in ICMR.
“Third wave threat, which is expected to be worse, seems to have receded in India.
If at all the third wave occurs, we are more likely to only have small nails in cases between individuals who are vulnerable and not vaccinated,” Gangakhedkar said.
After Wuhan strains earlier last year, more contagious delta tensions spread faster and infect a very large population in a short time span during the second wave.
High seroprevalence of Delta variants in the community also among positive indicators.
“The second wave in India is almost four times wider than the first wave, with a quick increase and falls together sharply.
It leaves most of our population with immunity after recovery from natural infections as seen in the latest serosurveys,” said Senior Epidemiology Amitav Banerjee.
The high level of antibodies of the Delta variant seems to have acted as brakes.
“The fact that India with a high population density is likely to achieve endemic status after a widespread natural infection, can be proven when we compare the surge in the current surge in European countries.
These nations with high vaccination coverage are experiencing peaks, while Infection in India dropped, “Banerjee said.
However, virologists witnessed the evolution of deltas and other variants.
The Indian Medical Research Council – National Institute of Virology (ICMR-NIV) Science Pragya Yadav said, “the mechanism mediated by immune (immune reduced) or the evolution of the virus for the escape of immune is not possible to ride a severe third wave unless the mechanism leads to the loss of total protection between The previously open.
Likewise, a new variant that is more transmitting must exceed the high threshold (R0) value (the average virus statement value) to cause the third wave itself, which seems impossible to occur at this time.
“But experts, para Experts have underlined that the duration of protection from natural immunity and vaccine induction and the emergence of the immune variant will determine the nature of the future covid waves.