If adequate and accessible family planning services are provided for all women who need it, the country may have reached a fertility rate lower than the replacement level as far as 2005-06.
According to the 2015-16 National Family Health Survey Report, the total level of fertility desired or estimated about the level of fertility if all unwanted births avoided, is 1.9 in the 2005-06 and 1.8 survey in 2015 -16.
This raises the question whether it makes sense to punish women or people for the failure of the government to provide basic health services.
In the latest NFHS surveys in 2019-20, the fertility level sought did not touch 2 in one of the larger states for data where it was released, bihar restrictions, where it was 2.3 compared to the total level of fertility 3.
Reports of several states including Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Punjab have not been released.
The total level of fertility desired from India decreased from 2.6 in 1993 to 1.8 in 2016.
The level of fertility level replacement was 2.1 children per woman, the level in which the population exactly replaced itself from one generation to another.
Indian fertility levels in 2015-16 are 2.2 and the partial data available for 2019-20 shows the possibility of dipping the level of replacement below.
When the total level of fertility of a country fell below 2.1, the population began to shrink after several years.
This will begin in 2005-06 if the government can improve services in health and education.
According to the 2015-16 survey, there are no single religious communities or caste where the desired fertility is above 2 children.
The total level of fertility sought is 2.3 only for the poorest and those who do not have school.
It is also estimated that 13% of married women have needs that are not fulfilled for family planning and there has been no significant decline in this unmet demand for a decade.
This is as high as 22% among women who are married in the age group 15-24.
Needs that are not fulfilled for family planning refer to women of children who want to delay the next birth (space) or stop giving birth but cannot.
Among greater countries, unmet needs for family planning are the highest in Bihar (21%) followed by Jharkhand and UP, where it is 18%.
In addition to family planning resources, if India ensures at least five years of school or basic education for her girls, the level of fertility can be far below the level of replacement.
According to the 2015-16 survey, the total level of fertility desired for women without school is 2.3, which fell to 1.9 among those who have five years of school and 1.5 for women with more than 12 years of school.
Likewise, if India managed to lift 20% the poorest due to poverty, the fertility rate would be around 1.9.
The NFHS-4 survey shows that the total desired fertility level of 20% of the population is 2.3 compared to 1.9 for the next quintile wealth and 1.4 for 20% richest.
There is also no coincidence that countries with the highest desired fertility rates are also with the worst death under five or probabilities of death at the age of five per 1,000 live births.
It’s well established that couples tend to have more children when the survival of their children is uncertain.
Bihar, where the desired total fertility level is 2.3, has a mortality rate below the five highest 56.4, which means that almost 6% of children who are born live before the age of five.
And it’s average for the country.
For the poorest, rates will be much higher.
Likewise above, where the total level of fertility desired in 2015-16 is 2.1, death below five is 78.