Categories: India

NYT talks to experts, gives 3 estimates of actual India toll

A report in the New York Times has suggested that India’s actual toll from Covid could be about double the official count in an optimistic case scenario and up to nearly 14 times the recorded numbers in a worstcase scenario. That would imply at least 6 lakh deaths and at worst 42 lakh deaths. The NYT, with which TOI has a syndication arrangement, put together these estimates by talking to “more than a dozen experts” including Dan Weinberger of the Yale School of Public Health. The estimates, the report says, are based on extrapolations from sero surveys for the true number of infected people and assumptions about the infection fatality rate (IFR), a measure of the number of people who die for every 100 infected. The report points out that while official figures miss deaths all over the world, “the undercount of cases and deaths in India is most likely even more pronounced, for technical, cultural and logistical reasons”. With hospitals overwhelmed, many Covid deaths occur at home, especially in rural areas, and are omitted from the official count, it quoted Kayoko Shioda, an epidemiologist at Emory University, as saying. It also said that even in the best of times, four out of five deaths in India are not medically investigated. The best-case scenario assumes that actual infections are about 15 times the number of cases detected, that is about 40.4 crore. It assumes an IFR of 0.15% which gives 6 lakh deaths. A second scenario, which the report describes as “a more likely scenario” takes the actual infections at 20 times what’s been detected by tests, or 53.9 crore. It assumes the IFR is 0.30%, “in line with what has been estimated in the US at the end of 2020”. That gives a figure of 16 lakh deaths or over five times the official count of 3 lakh. The most alarming scenario assumes there are 26 actual infections for every detected case — based on the last national sero prevalence study that ended in January — which puts the number of infected at just over 70 crore. It also assumes an IFR of 0.6% “to take into account the tremendous stress that India’s health system has been under during the current wave”. Those assumptions yield a toll of 42 lakh or 13.7 times what the official numbers suggest.

news2in

Share
Published by
news2in

Recent Posts

44 ordered to attack the procession

Ludhiana: The police have submitted FIR to four identified and at least 40 unknown attackers…

3 years ago

Punjab: Police Reject conspiracy theory in the case of Deep Sidhu

Sonīpat / Ludhiana / Ambala: Actor Punjabi - Activist Activist Deep Sidhu, who died in…

3 years ago

Punjab: Hidden Strength Working Behind PM Narendra Modi, Arvind Kejriwal, said Rahul Gandhi

PATIALA / MANSA / BARNALA: Attacking Prime Minister Narendra Modi and AAP National Convener Kejriawal,…

3 years ago

BJP made AAP to endanger the Congress, said Ajay

Jalandhar: BJP and AAM AAM AADMI parties are one party, Secretary General of the Ajay…

3 years ago

Our job is to make Punjab No. 1 State: Meenakshi Lekhi

Ludhiana: Minister of Union Culture Meenakshi Lekhi while campaigning to support the BJP candidate from…

3 years ago

Feb 20 is an opportunity to change the destiny of Punjab and his children: Bhagwant Mann

Machhiwara (Ludhiana): AAM AAM AADMI Party (AAP) Head of Punjab Candidate and Members of Parliament…

3 years ago