LONDON: Omicron variants from Coronavirus can cause between 25,000 and 75,000 deaths related to Covid-19 in the UK in April next year, if additional control measures are not taken, according to a modeling study.
The peer-review study shows that Omicron has the potential to cause a wave of transmission in the UK that can lead to a higher level of case and hospitalization than seen during January 2021.
Researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Drugs (LSHTM) in England Using the latest experimental data about the characteristics of antibodies – avoiding omicrons to explore a reasonable scenario for the runaway of the immune from the variant.
In the most optimistic scenario, the wave of infection is projected which can cause a peak of more than 2,000 daily hospital admissions, with 175,000 inpatients and 24,700 deaths between December 1, 2021 and 30 April 2022, if there are no additional control steps applied.
The optimistic scenario assumes low immune runaway from Omicron and the effectiveness of high vaccine amplifiers.
In this scenario, bringing initial control measures in 2022 which involve restrictions on indoor hospitality, the closure of several entertainment venues, and restrictions on the size of collection will be sufficient to substantially controlling these waves, reducing inpatient care of 53,000 and death of 7,600.
The most pessimistic scenario assumes high-immune runaway and the effectiveness of lower vaccine amplifiers.
This scenario projects a wave of infection that tends to lead to the peak in hospital receipts about twice as high as the peak seen in January 2021, if there are no additional control steps taken, with 492,000 inpatients and 74,800 deaths.
“There is a lot of uncertainty about the characteristics of Omicron, and whether Omicron in the UK will take the same course as in South Africa,” said Rosanna Barnard from LSHTM, who tore research.
“More data for the next few weeks will strengthen our knowledge of omicrons and the consequences of this on transmissions in the UK.
However, this initial projection helps guide our understanding of the potential futures in a rapidly growing situation,” Barnard said.
In the most optimistic scenario, the omicron impact on the initial part of 2022 will decrease with light control measures such as working from the house, the researchers said.
However, the most pessimistic scenario shows that Britain may have to bear more stringent restrictions to ensure the health system is not overwhelmed, they said.
Maskery-wearing, social distance jabs and booster are very important, but may not be enough, according to the researchers.
“No one wants to bear other locks, but the last resort steps may be needed to protect health services if Omicron has a significant immune runaway level or increased transmission compared to Delta,” Barnard said.
“It is very important for decision makers to consider the broader social impact of these steps, not only epidemiology,” he said.
For two wealthy escape scenarios that are considered, the team estimates the Omicron variant to be between 10 percent is less contagious than the Delta variant of up to 35 percent more contagious than Delta.
The researchers contributed additional protection provided by a booster dose against Omicron in their scenario.
If a large number of booster vaccines are achieved, then this is projected to mitigate further with a projection of surge in cases, hospitalization, and death, they said.
“This is an initial estimate, but they suggest that Omicron as a whole outperformed delta quickly by avoiding a vaccine to a substantial level,” said Nick Davies from LSHTM, who led the research.
“If the current trend continues, Omicron can represent half of the British case at the end of December,” Davies added.
The researchers noted that this projection was subject to considerable uncertainty.
The study has limitations including the initial nature of the data used to make predictions, uncertainty over the policy decisions to be carried out over the next few months, and lack of information about the relative severity of omicron.