Bengaluru: There is a slight downside risk for the Indian economy in the last few months this financial year from the omicron Coronavirus variant, according to economists surveyed by Reuters who said New Delhi had to focus on the February budget in the February budget.
The third largest economy in Asia is in the midst of a resurrection in Coronavirus cases driven by new variants who have forced most of the state to impose local restrictions.
Polling 11-18 January more than 45 economists estimated the economic growth of 5% of this quarter, a sharp decline of 6% given in December, completed the year at 9.2% compared to 9.5% in the previous month’s poll.
But almost two-thirds of those who responded to additional questions, 21 of 32, said there was a limited downside on the remaining prospects of this fiscal year which ended in March.
Nine said it was at risk of downgrade, and two said it was vulnerable to improvement.
The average growth projection for the next fiscal year is increased to 8% from 7.5% a month ago.
“The current limitation phase is not as weighing as long as the previous waves.
So, I think Omicron and the economic damage caused is the story of Jan-March and will only be limited to this fiscal year,” said Madhavi Arora, “said Madhavi Arora,” said Madhavi Arora, “said Madhavi Arora, a lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services.
Arora considers the first quarter of the next financial year which began in April will get an extra boost after the third wave passed, assuming it happened.
The latest poll also estimates economic growth 14.7% for the same quarter.
Inflation is expected to reach its peak at 5.8% in this quarter and then fall, remain under the reserves of the Bank of India (RBI) 6% of the upper threshold to at least the end of fiscal 2023-24, taking Pressure from the bank for a rise in interest rates in the future.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the country’s 2022-2023 budget on February 1, Giving New target for government expenditure, tax revenue, economic growth and fiscal deficit.
When asked what the government should focus, 16 of the 23 respondents said fiscal caution rather than expansion, even though there was a risk related to a pandemic.
“India and other emerging markets must begin to think of consolidating their Covid-19-year budget deficit in the global monetary environment where the US Fed begins to normalize policies,” said Miguel Chanco, Senior Asian economist in the Pantheon Macroeconomics.
“We expect a fairly aggressive tightening of the Fed this year and it will increase loan costs not only for India but for most EMS.” The country’s fiscal deficit jumped to 135.1% in the last April-November financial year but in the current year it was narrowed to 46.2% for the same period, assisted by a tax collection increase.
The target of the fiscal deficit for the next financial year is predicted to be 6%, and 5.5% for TA 2023-2024, both of them are lower than this year 6.8%.
“They will be very conservative with expenditure and income projections,” said Robert Carnell, the Head of the Asia Pacific Research in Ing.
“It’s really more than worries from Omicron, so I don’t think you should spend the opportunity that Omicron is bad.
Because of such cakes in the fact that the target is missed at that time.”