LONDON: Organizations of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday cut the divination of the world’s oil demand for the last quarter of 2021 because the Delta Coronavirus variant, said further recovery would be postponed until next year when consumption would exceed the pre-pandemic rates.
OPEC said that in a monthly report expecting an average oil demand of 99.70 million barrels per day (BPD) in the fourth quarter of 2021, down 110,000 BPDs from last month’s estimated.
“Increased risk of Covid-19 cases are mainly driven by the Delta variant is the prospect of cloudy oil demand to go to the last quarter of this year,” OPEC said in the report.
“As a result, the second half of 2021 oil demand has been adjusted slightly lower, some delay the recovery of oil demand to the first half of 2022.” The government, the company and trader monitored carefully the speed of oil demand recovered from the accident last year.
Faster returns, as expected by OPEC, can increase prices and challenge the view that the impact of pandemics can curb consumption longer or good.
Oil traded above $ 73 per barrel after the report was released.
Prices have increased by more than 40% this year, driven by the expectations of economic recovery and cutting supply of OPEC +, although concerns about the Delta variant have been weighed.
Apart from the downward revisions in the fourth quarter, OPEC said the overall world oil demand would rise 5.96 million barrels per day or 6.6%, almost unchanged from last month.
Estimated growth for 2022 is adjusted to 4.15 million BPD, compared with 3.28 million BPD in last month’s report and an estimated 4.2 million BPD provided by OPEC sources during the group’s last meeting on September 1.
“The rate of recovery in oil demand is now assumed to be stronger and mostly take place in 2022,” OPEC said.
“Because of the increase in vaccination rates, Pandemic Covid-19 is expected to be better managed and economic activities and mobility will strongly return to the pre-covid-19 level.” The highest view of the request with the latest changes, OPEC still has the highest demand growth rate among the three main oil forecasting institutions, the US government and the International Energy Agency, advisors to consume their latest monthly reports on Tuesday.
OPEC and his allies, known as OPEC +, gradually loosened the cutting of oil output which was included last year due to a pandemic.
In July, they agreed to increase the output of 400,000 BPD a month from August and confirmed the plan at their last meeting on September 1.
The report showed OPEC output rose in August by 150,000 BPD to 26.75 million BPD, led by Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
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Unintentional cutting in Nigeria reduces the scale of supply encouragement.