NEW DELHI: With Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati reiterating on June 27 that her party would contest the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election all alone, the opposition seems to have made the ruling BJP’s task easier to retain power in the state.
While refuting reports that BSP would align with Asauddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in the next state polls, Mayawati said her party would go solo in both UP and Uttarakhand.
The only exception would be Punjab where the BSP would align with Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), she added.
This is at least the second time this year when Mayawati has emphasised that the BSP would contest the next year’s UP assembly election on its own.
On her 65th birthday on January 15, she had declared that her party would not cobble up any alliance for the upcoming state polls in UP and Uttarakhand.
Close on the heels, Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav on January 18 said his party would contest the UP assembly polls on its own.
However, he added that SP would keep its doors open for the smaller parties, including his estranged uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav’s Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (PSP).
With the two largest opposition parties declaring that they would not stitch any alliance, the next UP election would witness a multi-cornered contest.
This would only help the BJP as the votes against it are likely to get split among the opposition parties.
On the other hand, the BJP’s core votes may see it sail through comfortably.
Had the BSP, SP and Congress decided to form a grand alliance, the BJP would have got a run for its money.
There were chances of it getting defeated.
The 2015 Bihar assembly election is a case in point.
Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] and the Congress had joined hands to form the Mahagathbandhan against the BJP.
Out of the total 243 assembly seats, RJD won 80, JD(U) 71 and the Congress 27 seats.
On the other hand, the BJP won 53 seats – way fewer than the 178 of the Mahagathbandhan.
The RJD polled 18.35 per cent of the vote share, JD(U) polled 16.83 per cent and the Congress 6.66 per cent.
While the Mahagathbandhan garnered 41.84 per cent of the votes polled, the BJP fetched 24.42 per cent of the vote share.
The picture changed in the 2020 Bihar assembly election.
The BJP and JD(U) joined hands again and fought the election as National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners.
The BJP won 74 seats and JD(U) 43.
Their opponents RJD and Congress bagged 75 and 19 seats respectively.
As far as vote share is concerned, BJP polled 19.46 per cent while JD(U) 15.39 per cent.
On the other side, RJD polled 23.11 per cent while the Congress bagged 9.48 per cent of the votes polled.
A 2015-like coalition of RJD, JD(U) and Congress would have defeated the BJP even in 2020.
The opposition parties have missed a similar chance to give a tough fight to the BJP in UP.
The BSP has not aligned with any party in the 2007, 2012 or 2017 UP elections.
The Congress and SP did stitch an alliance in the 2017 assembly election with the hyped up slogan of “UP ke do ladke” (the two boys of UP), meaning Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh.
However, in the absence of BSP, the alignment failed to cut ice with the voters.
The experiment proved a disaster.
It was similar to the 2020 Bihar assembly election when the RJD and Congress could not defeat the BJP in the absence of JD(U) on their side.
In the 2007 UP assembly polls, when the BSP had won a majority on its own and came to power for the last time, it won 206 of the 403 seats and clocked 30.43 per cent of the votes polled.
The SP won 97 seats and garnered 25.43 per cent of the votes polled.
The BJP was victorious on 51 seats and got 16.97 per cent vote share.
In the 2012 UP assembly elections, the SP formed government.
It won 224 seats and got 29.13 per cent vote share.
The BSP won 80 seats by polling 25.91 per cent votes.
The BJP was victorious on 47 seats and it garnered 15 per cent votes.
In the 2017 assembly elections, the BJP won 312 seats by garnering 39.7 per cent vote share.
On the other side, SP won 47 seats and garnered 21.9 per cent of the vote share.
The BSP was victorious on 19 seats by garnering 22.2 per cent vote share.
The Congress won 7 seats and got 6.25 per cent vote share while Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) won 1 seat and got 1.78 per cent of the votes polled.
Together, the four main opposition parties won only 74 seats but polled a whopping 52.13 per cent of the vote share, much ahead of the 39.7 per cent votes polled by the BJP.
Had the four parties contested together, the result could have been much different.
However, in the present circumstances, the BJP has become a major player in the elections unlike the 2007 and 2012 polls.
The Congress has slid to a distant fourth position.
Neither the BSP nor the SP is in a position to take on the BJP on its own.
Mayawati in UP may not be able to do a Mamata Banerjee in the 2021 West Bengal assembly election.
In the 2007 and 2012 UP assembly, the BSP and SP respectively fetched just about 30 per cent of the vote share to win a majority.
However, the BJP pushed the bar close to 40 per cent per cent in the 2017 polls.
Individually, the BSP and the SP will have to cover immense ground to cross the majority mark.
Alternately, the BJP will have to put up a poor show to get less than 30 per cent votes to lose the election.
The opposition seems to have made the task of the BJP government led by Yogi Adityanath easier.