New Delhi: April-June GDP growth can change to a record of quarterly expansion because the economy recovers from the second wave of pandemic and the benefits of a low base last year.
State Statistics Office will release quarterly GDP data on Tuesday and various estimates show that it can range from 10.5% to 31.6%, while the median estimate of two polls showed it at 20% and 21% in April-June, quarter First, the first quarter, the first quarter in the fiscal year 2021-22.
RBI estimates the first quarter growth to 21.4%.
To place numbers in the perspective, the April-June quarter of last year has posted the sharpest contraction in the 24.4% record because of the impact of one of the most stringent locking imposed to prevent the spread of covid.
“Basically we see a very strong double growth of 23% for this quarter and the possibility of higher than the RBI’s own assessment.
Most of this is because the base is very profitable from last year, when national locking almost brings the economy to traffic jams,” said Yuvika Singhal, economist at Quanteco Research.
“But however I think this two-digit growth is more optical than others because we need to remember that this is also the quarter when the two pandemic waves are very fierce and April and can see a large number of states into the limitation little by little, which at the end of May almost Being like a national lock, although in a very staggering way at the state level, “said Singhal.
Since the April-June quarter last year, the economy began writing a strong recovery, but the second wave of pandemic stopped the process.
Key opening and government expenses have helped revive recovery.
Economists say growth in the first quarter will be led by the manufacturing, mining and construction sectors, while the AGRI segment will also provide strong support.
Laggard will be the service sector, which has been hit hard by two consecutive pandemic waves and has not recovered from the breakwater.
The vaccination rate, which has collected momentum now, will also play an important role in determining the trajectory of growth in the quarter in front.
“I think it will be a broader story in the second half of this year unlike where the industry leads the package compared to services,” said Madhavi Arora, the main economist at Emkay Global Financial Services.