New Delhi: The first Covid wave caused unprecedented economic damage and many indicators suggest the second wave would also hurt.
But some experts say Indian economic recovery is still on track and our health system is now better prepared to overcome the third wave.
In a panel discussion as part of the campaign of hopeful fire, health experts and government officials talked about the rise of the Indian economy and the steps he took to minimize the impact of Covid waves in the future.
GDP growth, among other indicators, shows the economic recovery of the India V-shaped V and the impact of the second wave is likely to be bought, said Krishnamurthy Subramarian, the head of an economic advisor to the government.
He praised the recovery to “kill reform” for the past 18 months.
“When history looks back in this period, this reform will be equated as (SIC) as a path as a 1991 reform,” he said.
While the growth of GDP from the fourth quarter of last year was negative, Subramanian referred to other indicators such as the formation of gross fixed capital and consumption to claim India has shown resilience.
He said he was convinced that India would touch “7% growth plus consistently” this decade.
Subramanian said tight locking was needed on the first wave because it was a little known about the virus, but by the second wave policy maker understood “exchanges between life and livelihoods to ensure the restrictions on contacts that are sensitive to contacts minimized.” Seroprevalence surveys in big cities such as Delhi and Mumbai show more than 50% of the population have antibodies, which are together with increased vaccination programs that are targeting to vaccinate 70 crores in September, can blunt down the negative effects of the third wave, subramamian said.
While the government has set a target of ambitious vaccination – Subramanian said India plans to secure 200 doses of crore vaccines in December – there is plenty of space to improve Indian health care infrastructure, other panelists said.
Dr.
Swati Piramal, Deputy Chair of the Piramal Group, noted that India has spent less than 2% of its GDP in health care over the past decade.
“We pay the current price,” he said.
Quoting Archimedes – ‘If you give me a long enough lever, I can lift the world’ – he said, “We need such lever in health care today to have a massive transformation.” Preetha Reddy, Deputy Chief Executive of the Apollo Hospital, said that while the first and second waves arrested India unconsciously, the health care system could respond quickly despite its limitations.
But in the future, public-private partnerships can help overcome the cost of regulation of infrastructure and labor.
Dinesh Tyagi, Director of the Public Service Center, a network of facilities that provide digital services in rural areas, said the pandemic forced the government to expand his digital infrastructure.
Health services too, digitized both by the government and private groups, through Cowin and encouragement towards Telemedicine, said Tyagi, can increase access to health services.
“One of the things that happened during Covid was a telemedicine guideline that was approved.
They were delayed for years.
I was told by one doctor 80% of human diseases could be identified without touching the human body.
If that is true, Telemedicine can work.” Apollo has done 10,000 Tele-consultation a day across the facilities and training staff to use smartphones for diagnostics and data collection, Reddy said.
“We train 50,000 caregivers who can use smartphones to check blood pressure, temperature and so on, bring it back to the centralized hub and then send a doctor wherever it is needed.” Piramal said Covid has shown the importance of investing in health care and preparing the next pandemic.
“Health security will be one of the most important things for the nation – we don’t have it today.”