Paris: Afghanistan takeover that fast Taliban has left Iran and Turkish regional heavyweight with headaches – both countries can see the opportunity to increase their influence but there is no further inflow.
This is especially true now because the two countries fought against Coronavirus pandemics and faced economic difficulties.
Analysts say everything depends on unknown factors – Taliban presents a more moderate attitude that allows international cooperation or they return to uncontrolled extremism that leads to their overthrow after the September 11, 2001 attacks.
“The situation is a big risk for Turkey, no There are doubts.
Iran will also lose if the Taliban return to the old road and provide a safe shelter “for Islamic extremists, original account, senior colleagues at the European Council abroad (ECFR), told AFP.
Iran and Turkey are at risk of seeing substantial refugee inflows, many of which are crossing from Iran to Turkey in hopes of reaching Europe.
Both of them have held a large refugee population – 3.6 million Syrians in Turkey and 3.5 million Afghans in Iran – and tolerance at home almost run out.
Pandemic Covid-19 has hit Iran loudly, encouraging countries that are beaten further into the crisis, while in the Turkey of economic growth that is always the fortress of Erdogan’s popularity has faded.
Turkey’s President received Tayyip Erdogan said last week that he was ready to fulfill the Taliban leadership in an effort to secure peace while the president of the new Iranian hardline, Ebrahim Rasi said the “defeat” of the US military in Afghanistan was the opportunity to bring peace to the country.
On Tuesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu talked about “positive messages” that came from the Taliban about protection for civilians and foreigners, expressing their hopes of following up with positive actions.
But analysts said the Taliban takeover robbed Erdogan from the strategic card he wanted to play – bid to provide military security at Kabul airport which might have increased relations with US President Joe Biden.
“The entire Turkish mission is in danger and the idea of ​​using Kabul airport as a leverage in launching Turkish relations with Washington,” said AyderKerbas, adding it was “difficult to imagine” the Taliban let Turkey control the airport.
“A few days ago looked like a golden opportunity for Turkey.
Now it’s a big bomb.” Meanwhile, “the most urgent problem” for Erdogan is the possibility of the entry of refugees from Afghanistan when growing riots in Turkey for the Long-term Syrian presence in the country, he said.
AydintaKbas said neighboring countries “did not know what would look like Taliban 2.0”.
“If the Taliban becomes more moderate, Turkey can be involved with him,” he said.
The international crisis group argues in a record of research that Taliban diplomatic involvement “has shifted to a regional-focused approach”, emphasizing dialogue with Iran, Russia, Central Asian and Chinese countries.
Rouzbeh Parsi from the Swedish international affairs institute said US troops left the area was the purpose of Iran, but their departure was far from entirely welcomed for Tehran.
“US support for the government in Afghanistan and Iraq is also beneficial for Iran because it ensures certain stability and we carry out severe rapture,” he said.
Incredible Shia Iran, who shared the border of more than 900 kilometers (550 miles) with Afghanistan, look sharp to achieve peaceful coexistence with the Taliban Sunni, he said.
“Iran has time, pragmatic as usual, accepting that the Taliban will not disappear and that no outsiders will be able to defeat them billionly,” he said.
“Iran is a country that is very disturbing by Covid, Corruption and Economics faltering.
The ability and willingness to take more Afghan refugees may not be great.” Parsi added that Iran’s relationship in the future with a new ruler in Kabul “hinges in the Taliban pragmatism”, noted that Tehran would pay special attention to the welfare of the Minority of Hazara the most Shia, Persia.
Marc Pierini, a Bachelor of Guest in Carnegie Europe and the former EU Ambassador to Turkey, said Europe was anxiously overseeing the potential of migrants to flow after one million people reached the coast especially through Turkey in 2015 when the Syrian conflict was at its peak.
“This emergency handling will require a level of humanity cooperation between the EU and Iran-Turkey, which will be difficult to achieve,” he told AFP.