Chennai: Tamil Nadu has not officially announced the early third wave of Covid-19, but public health experts and doctors say there is enough strand of scientific and statistical evidence to show that the epidemic curve has been set.
The main epidemiological factor infection of the growth rate, the transmission rate, time of doubling and hospital occupancy shows the epidemic curve increases steeply.
Driven by the omicron variant that spread quickly, Covid-19 cases continued to increase on Thursday with 6,983 new cases in Tamil Nadu, most of Chennai, Chengalpet, Tiruvalur, Coimbatore and Vellore.
R-Naught transmission levels or infections in Chennai jumped to 3.1 from less than 1 in the first week of December.
During the same period, R-Naught in the country increased to 2.43 from 0.96.
If R0 is three, every new case of a disease will produce three other infections.
“With whatever R value greater than 1 infection will increase, spread through a population.
The rapid increase in this amount shows that everyday cases will continue to grow exponentially,” said Deputy Institute of National Deputy Director Dr.
Prabhdeep Kaur.
The increased R-Naught has caused rapid growth at the infection rate.
The average daily case reported by Chennai on Wednesday at least 7.3% more than what the city had been reported a month ago.
On Thursday – when a new case in Chennai increased to 3,859 – the growth rate rose to 8.7%.
At the city average report 1,536 cases every day compared to 125 cases a month ago.
During the same period as the average case in the country increased to 2,934 of 719.
“For daily infections and new cases down, R effectively must go under one,” Dr Kaur said.
The rapidly growing level of infection has reduced doubling time.
Chennai, which has so far reported 5.7 cases of lakh covid-19 since March 20, can bring it in just 258 days.
On the new year’s day is more than 1,000 days.
In the state, the period has dropped to 600 days from more than 2,000 days on January 1 and 2600 days a month ago.
In addition to shrinking doubling time, the state reports an increase in the level of testicitivity (TPR).
“Over the past few days, districts such as Chennai, Chengalpet and Tiruvallur have increased tests.
The average leading level of test tests also increases.
This is because of two reasons.
First, we know the infection itself has increased, the two percentage reporting people for laboratories with Symptoms or suspicions have increased substantially, “said Public Health Director Dr.
TS Selvavinayagam.
The results of almost four of every 100 patients tested in Chennai are back positive compared to less than one a month ago.
Along with Chennai, the pioneering level of chengalpet high-test (3.2%), Tiruvallur (2.2%) and Tuticorin (1.9%).
However, the level of the average test in the country is 1.5%.
“The percentage of people who came to the hospital from the total collection of active cases had fallen,” said Director of Medical Education Dr.
Narayanababu R.
For example, of 1,189 active cases in Chennai, 536 (45%) were hospitalized.
On Wednesday, from 7,878 patients, 2008 (25%) were in the hospital.
“While we track, test, isolate and vaccinate people, we want people to cover and maintain Covid norms.
We want to minimize the cluster,” said Minister of Health MA Subramanian.