Pune: The third wave of Covid-19 cannot be as heavy as the second and India is now in the endemic stage of the disease, the leading virological words.
Dr.
Gagandeep Kang, a member of the Covid-19 working group and a professor in Christian Medical College, Vellore, told Ti that he could not really see a big third wave in the next few months with the existing variant.
But, he said, there might be a small waves limited to certain geography.
“Delhi, in all probabilities, has four waves.
Wave is an increase in cases followed by a decrease in a relatively short period in the specified geography.
We may not see a sharp surge in cases in the third wave as in the second wave case because of the second wave case People who are vulnerable and there are no new variants, “he said.
Kang said he did not say that there would be no third wave even with existing variants, but it would be smaller in smaller geography.
He said before there was a lot of infections and a large number of people fell ill because everyone was vulnerable.
“Now, with fewer vulnerable people, there will be an increase in infection without an increase in sick people.
This is decoupling between infections and diseases because people are protected from severe illness due to infection or previous vaccination,” he said.
Explaining endemicity, Kang said endemic is a disease that is consistently present at high or low frequencies, which may differ in various geography.
“Given that the virus has been there for more than 18 months with two perga from the population that has been infected in June / July and sustainable cases, we can simply say that we have reached the endemic stage,” he said.
Kang said the increase in the number of cases even in hinged endemic diseases in environmental conditions and behavioral changes.
Seasonal fluctuations also affect endemic diseases.
“So, according to epidemiology, we have reached the endemic stage, where we live with viruses in the background and there is a possibility that some prevalence increases depend on local conditions and behavior,” he said.
Jacob John, another prominent virology, Gema Kang.
“We are in an endemic phase with a steady amount without much pairs and falls for 12 weeks or three months – July, August and September.
The third wave is very unlikely in 2021.
Waves need a vulnerable population with a certain size, which is currently not Adequate.
The latest serosurvey confirmed that most of the population was immune, “he told toi.
He said the waves in the near future were possible only if the new variant was more transfer than Delta appeared, but it would be small because the pool was not large.
“There is no variant like that is known now.
We also increase vaccination.
So, the next wave will be postponed until the size of the individual population is vulnerable to growing quite large,” he explained.
Epidemiologist Giridhar Babu said the interpretation of terms such as endemicity of being bound to subjectively and require a clear definition to track the next phase of Covid-19.
“Recommendations from the Universal Health Review Advisor Group are waiting.
It is at the formation stage by the World Health Organization, which has the potential to overcome this,” he added.