Paris: Nearly 200 countries start online negotiations on Monday to validate UN Science reports that will hit the autumn summit accused of preventing the climate disaster on the scale of the planet.
Heatwa-Destroying which destroys records, floods and drought on three continents in the past few weeks, all of which are strengthened by global warming, making inter-governmental panels about the assessment of climate change (IPCC) more timely.
“This will be a wake-up call, there is no doubt about it,” said Richard Black, the founder and senior associate of the London-based energy and climate unit.
The report, he noted, only came a few weeks ahead of the UN General Assembly, KTT G20, and the COP26 197-Nation climate summit in Glasgow.
The world is a different place since the last comprehensive assessment of the IPCC in 2014 global warming, past, and future.
The remaining doubts that heating is to gather steps or almost all of the origin of humans, along with convincing ideas that the climate impact is a problem tomorrow, since it evaporates in the fog of hot waves and deadly fires.
Another historian since the last IPCC Tome: The Paris Agreement has been adopted, with a collective appointment to limit the surface temperature of the planet in “far below” two degrees Celsius (36 degrees Fahrenheit) above the final level of the 19th century.
Carbon pollution from burning fossil fuels, methane leakage, and agriculture has pushed a thermometer of 1.1 degrees Celsius so far, and emissions increase sharply again after short interlude, subject to Covid, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The 2015 agreement also displays aspirational limits at 1.5 degrees Celsius heating, with many parties undoubtedly assuming this goal can be neglected safely.
But the Special IPCC report in 2018 shows how much more powerful is 2 degrees Celsius, for humanity and the planet.
“1.5 Celsius became the target de facto” – and evidence of the influence of the IPCC in forming a global policy, the main writer of the IPCC and Professor of University of Maynooth Peter Thorne told AFP.
Scientists have calculated that greenhouse gas emissions must decrease by 50 percent by 2030, and gradually completely in 2050 to remain in the range of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The third sea change over the past seven years is in the science itself.
“Today we have a better climate projection model, and longer observations with a much clearer climate change signal,” Climatology Robert Vautard, is also an IPCC main writer and the Director of France Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute, told AFP.
Maybe the biggest breakthrough is what is called an attribution study, which for the first time allows scientists to quickly measure the extent to which climate change encourages the intensity or possible extreme weather events.
For example, within a few days after “hot dome” that burned Canada and West US last month, the world weather attribution consortium calculated that the heatwave was almost impossible without heating man-made.
But the analysis after-fact was not the same as Foresight, and IPCC – established in 1988 to inform the UN climate negotiations – has been criticized by some for the dangers of low fighting, the pattern of Harvard Science Historian Naomi Oreskes has been called “erring on the least drama side”.
From Monday, representatives from 195 countries, with tin scientists in their elbows, they will beratimate 20 to 30-page “summary for policy makers” with words for word.
The virtual meeting for physical science which includes the first installment – from the report of the three sections will take two weeks than the usual, with the release of the document scheduled August 9, to be published in February 2022, including the impact.
The leaked draft obtained by AFP warns that climate change will be fundamentally reshape life on the earth in the coming decades even if carbon pollution warming planets are tamed, and calling for a “transformational change” a much worse future generation.
Part three, to be launched the following month, checking solutions to reduce emissions.
Based on almost entirely in published studies, reports that are being reviewed this week the possibility of predictions – even under optimistic scenarios – “overshoot” while from 1.5 degrees of Celsius targets.
There will also be a new focus on what is called the event “Low probability, high risk, such as an irreversible ice smelting that can lift sea level with meters, and permafrost decay with greenhouse gases.” Feedback that changes the stronger change than we suppose And we might approach some critical points, “said Lenton Team, Director of the University of Global Systems Institute.