Paris: As a picture of a fireplace and flood that stops the heart dominates the news cycle worldwide, the UN climate science panel will reveal on Monday the projections that are highly anticipated for temperature and sea levels up less than three months before the crucial climate summit in Scotland.
After two weeks of virtual negotiations, 195 countries agreed to the inter-governmental panel regarding the comprehensive assessment of climate change (IPCC) on past heating and future on Friday in the form of “summary for policy makers”.
Text – vetted and approved line by line, word by word – the possibility of painting a gloomy picture of the acceleration of climate change and terrible threats on the horizon.
On deadly heels of floods in India, China and Northern Europe and HeatWa disbursement of asphalt in North America and southern Europe, IPCC reports are the first assessment report called since 2014.
Both the world and science have changed a lot since then.
With increasingly sophisticated technology it allows scientists to measure climate change and predict their future paths, reports will project global temperature changes until the end of this century with different emission scenarios.
Based almost entirely in published studies, he can estimate – even under optimistic scenarios – “Overshoot” while from 1.5 degrees of Celsius targets from the Paris Agreement, and revise up the estimated increase in long-term sea levels.
It is also expected to reflect great progress in what is called attribution, which allows experts to connect individual extreme weather events directly to man-made climate change.
While the underlying IPCC report is purely scientific, a summary for policy makers negotiated by national representatives, and therefore subject to competitive priorities.
The Belgian Climate Physicist and the former chair with IPCC Jean-Pascal Ypele, who partyed to negotiations, said the talks were guided by the underlying knowledge.
“I can testify that the #Climatereport writer has the last word on each sentence at SPM, which is truly a summary for (and not by) policy makers,” he said on Twitter.
The report came less than three months before COP26 climate talks in Glasgow, which was considered important for the possibility of humanity to limit the worst impact of global warming.
“This will be a serious warning but human behavior greatly accelerates global warming and this is why COP26 must be when we get this correctly,” said President Cop26 Awar Sharma for the weekend.
“We are unable to wait two years, five years, 10 years – this is a moment,” he told the British newspaper.
French Climatology Corinne Le Quere congratulated the delegates on Friday to complete “text from what I thought would be one of the most important scientific reports ever published”.
There will be two more parts of the latest IPCC climate assessment, known as AR6.
A working group reported the climate impact, the draft which was exclusively obtained by AFP, was set for release in February 2022.
Another report that focuses on solutions to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change will come out the following month.