WASHINGTON: After months of difficult negotiations, can the United States and Iran find ways to save the 2015 nuclear agreement? Annual Summit Next week at the United Nations can offer clues because Iran’s hardline government makes its international debut.
After President Joe Biden served in January, the United States and Iran began indirect negotiations in Vienna through ivory from the European Union and the nations who remained in the agreement – Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China.
Former President Donald Trump in 2018 withdrew from an agreement negotiated by his predecessor Barack Obama, on the grounds that it did not overcome other problems in Iran, including his support for regional militants targeting US Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The agreement promised Iran’s economic assistance because of its sharp decline from its nuclear work, but instead slapped a sweep sanction against Tehran including US prohibitions unilaterally on oil exports.
Negotiations made simple progress, but had been jammed since June when Iran insisted on raising all sanctions.
The Biden government said it was only willing to see the steps taken in response to nuclear programs.
New Ultrakonvative President of Iran, Ebrahim Relision, entered in early August and placed a hardliner responsible for negotiations, replacing a more moderate team of its predecessor Hassan Rouhani who was looking for a better relationship with the West.
The Relision will make his debut on the international stage with a speech on Tuesday before the UN General Assembly – but like many leaders he will appear with videos due to Covid-19 prevention measures.
The New Foreign Minister Iran, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, will travel to New York but there is no meeting with the United States scheduled.
“We have not made a direct plan for bilateral meetings while they are here, but that does not mean that we do not see the value in discussing with Iran,” said the US Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield.
But indirect diplomacy is expected because Europeans see the new Iranian team.
Pointman US in Iran, Rob Malley, recently visited Moscow where he talked about a “constructive” meeting.
Instead, a European diplomat said that China, Iran’s main trading partner, was increasingly trying to protect Tehran.
Amir-Abdollahian suggested at the end of August that negotiations in Vienna would not continue for two or three months, although some observers expect previous conversation.
What is still unclear is if Tehran will hold on to the same red line as in June or if it will lift his attitude further, Ali Vaez said, an Iranian in the international crisis group.
“The US is very close to the point.
I don’t think there are more maneuvering space left for the Biden government,” Vaez said.
“And if Iranians try to drive harder bargains, basically it is a formula for a dead end.” The longer delay, closer observers believe Iran will capacity to produce nuclear bombs if so choose.
US Secretary Antony Blinken said on a recent visit to Germany that “we are getting closer to the point” where the nuclear agreement “does not reproduce the benefits that the agreement is achieved,” even though he stopped setting a date.
The main question will be a collaboration between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The head of the UN watchdog, Rafael Grossi, visited Tehran this month and reached the arrangement to continue to oversee Iran’s nuclear facilities – but only the temporary.
Vaez estimates that if the problem with the IAEA is not resolved in November, Iran’s nuclear problems can be a full crisis which means the final death for the 2015 agreement.