New Delhi: With Monsoon still avoiding the city and the surrounding area, estimates of the Indian Meteorology Department (IMD) have been criticized.
There is no forecasting model in the world that has 100% accuracy even with the best technology, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at the IMD.
Mohapatra believes that the nature of the “unpredictable” monsoon can only provide 55-60% accuracy even with the best technology model and forecasting in place.
“Our goal is to have a technology that will be able to estimate the weather phenomenon with 100% accuracy.
However, that day is still far.
Until then, we need human experience and understanding of data,” said Mohapatra to Ti.
“Our forecast was made on July 1 regarding the rainy season to slow down and came in the mid-week of July was on track so far.
However, in some cases, the forecast of a longer duration may not apply too.
It is very difficult to estimate how the monsoon will develop For more than 15 days, “said Mohapatra.
Estimated accuracy is more than 80% in a 24 hour period and more than 60% over a five-day period, he added.
According to IMD, it depends on human intervention to assess the model, because the dependence on technology can just let data open for interpretations in some cases.
Every morning, the IMD held a video conference where scientists from all over the country used their experiences to assess weather patterns for the next few days, relying on estimated models produced by machines, satellite imagery and radar technology.
Meeting officials said while dependence on technology was 70%, 30% human interpretation played an important role in estimates for that day.
“Combination of machines, models and human skills and experiences are used every day.
24-hour forecasts can sometimes not capture sudden weather changes, which can occur in a matter of hours.
For this reason, our current features, which provide predictions for each Three hours, is the most accurate, “said an official met.
“The weather is very volatile during the rainy season and the end of summer.
There is low pressure because of high temperatures.
There is high water content in the air because the monsoon is getting closer and the circulation of cyclones can cause cloud formation and rain in a few hours.
This is not always easy to estimate,” Official added.
While someone can rely on satellite imaging and radar technology for short-term estimates of 3-4 hours, the same thing might not apply 24 hours, a scientist who works for forecasting told Ti asking for anonymity.
“The conditions in tropical belts are more dynamic than in other parts of the country.
Monsun, plus weather changes during the summer are more dynamic, therefore short-term estimates can catch it.
Within 24 hours, it can change completely, which is why the release of estimates are updated in the morning It might not match the night before, “said the scientist.
“Sometimes, only a small patch of land throughout the city receives rainfall.
Although this means that the estimate is accurate, it may not rain and the forecast does not apply,” added scientists.
For ‘soft’ indicators, IMD uses terms such as “impossible” (less than 25% of the possibility of occurrence), “Possible” (25-50% opportunity), “Very possible” (most likely “(chances” More than 75%) in his daily estimate, according to officials.
“This provides a rough estimate that if the rain is estimated, it may not always occur and will depend on the possibility category it is placed in,” he added.
Navdeep Dahiya, an amateur competitor who runs’ weather India’s life ‘, said climate change has played a key role over the past decade, making weather patterns more unpredictable, although there is the best of technology.
“This summer alone, we have seen the Heatwave days at the end of June and early July, Unusual.
We see more rain in some places and less in other parts.
Weather patterns are more fluctuating now, “Dahiya said.