Chennai: a steady decline in fresh covid cases despite some relaxation in locking, including office opening, public transportation, malls and restaurants, has led public health officials and epidemiology to conclude that Tamil Nadu approaches the base line for the second wave that turns off the epidemic curve , “That does not mean we will see zero cases soon,” said Senior Virology Dr.
T Jacob John.
“We might see clusters when things open, but we might not see the peak of what we saw in 2020 or 2021.
It won’t flood the hospital and tire our health service provider because there may not be enough population left for viruses .
However, when the population increases, cases will also increase.
We drift slowly from the epidemic phase to the endemic phase.
“In countries such as the United Kingdom, the Delta variant of the virus has caused the third wave.
However, hospitals were not overwhelmed because more people were vaccinated.
“Most people carry Delta variants during the second wave in India.
There is little chance for more contagious mutations,” John said.
But officials did not want to disappoint their guards.
The public health department asks all districts to draw samples from people with symptoms and take random samples from people at work and crowded areas.
On average, TN tests at least 1.5 lakh people every day.
“But we see people who violate the Pandemic Protocol,” said Health Secretary J Radhakrishnan.
“They sit too close to each other in restaurants and public transportation.
Many do not use the mask correctly in a closed room.” Country, who reported an average of more than 14,000 cases to mid-June, now reported less than 4,000 cases every day, But with increased risk behavior where the case has fallen slowed down.
For example, between June 15 and 20, when the country offers relaxation, the average number of new cases reported every day falls from 14,000 to 9,800.
This encourages policy makers to allow more relaxation.
At the end of the month, the country reported around 5,000 cases a day.
“In the past week, we see cases, plateau in several districts.
Other places report a slower fall.
This is because risk behavior increases,” Radhakrishnan said.
The Public Health Department is working on sero-prevalence studies to estimate how many people are affected by the second wave and have sent samples for genome studies to keep the watch close to mutations, said Public Health Director Dr.
S Selvavinayagam.
“We also vaccinate as many people as a day.
But unless people follow the Pandemic Protocol, we may not be able to maintain low infections,” he added.