WASHINGTON: The fast-moving Omicron variant can cause diseases that are less severe, but the death of Covid-19 in the US is the climbing and estimates of 50,000 to 300,000 Americans can die when the waves subside in mid-March.
The average spread of seven days for the new death Covid-19 daily in the US has become a trend up since mid-November, reaching nearly 1,700 on January 17 – still below the peak of 3,300 in January 2021.
The death of the house of the preamise began to rise a little two weeks ago, Even though it was still at a speed of 10 times less than last year before most of the population was vaccinated.
Apart from the omicron signs on average cause lighter disease, the rate of infection that has never previously spread through the country, with cases still surging in many countries, meaning that many people who are vulnerable will become very sick.
If the tip of higher projection occurs, it will push the total US death from Covid-19 more than 1 million at the beginning of spring.
“Many people will still die because how contagious omicron has been,” said the University of South Florida Epidemiology Jason Salemi.
“Unfortunately it will get worse before getting better.” Morgues began to run out of space at Johnson County, Kansas, said Dr.
Sanmi Areola, director of the Ministry of Health.
More than 30 residents have died in the county this year, most of them are not vaccinated.
But the idea that variants that are generally less severe can still take the lives of thousands of people have difficulty for health experts to deliver.
Mathematics – that a small percentage of very high infection can produce very high deaths – it is difficult to visualize.
“Overall, you will see more people who are sick even if you as individuals have lower opportunities for pain,” said Katriona Shea from Pennsylvania State University, which co-lead teams that unite several pandemic models and share combined projections with the White House .
The wave of deaths leading to the United States will be a symbol at the end of January or early February, Shea said.
In early February, weekly death could be the same or exceed the peak of Delta, and may even go beyond the previous US peak in the death of last year.
Some unknown parts of this death are among people infected by Delta variants, but experts say Omicron also claimed the life.
“This is Omicron encouraged,” Shea said about the wave of upcoming deaths.
The combined model of a 1.5 million American project will be hospitalized and 191,000 will die since mid-December to mid-March.
Taking into account the uncertainty in the model, US death during omicron waves can range from 58,000 to 305,000.
However, it became increasingly clear that the risk of Omicron was lower than from the previous variant.
New evidence of nearly 70,000 patients in southern California suggested Omicron caused a lighter disease than Delta.
A study, posted online and quoted during recent white house direction, found patients with Omicron had a risk of inpatient 53% lower with respiratory symptoms, the risk of ICU revenue 74% lower, and the risk of death 91% lower.
Study, which Peer has not reviewed, comes from researchers at Kaiser Permanente and the University of California, Berkeley.
“It’s hard for me to say that it’s good,” said the study of Sara Y.
Tartof, a permanent research scientist Kaiser.
“There may be good news in the sense that if you infect your chance to become severe pain decreases, but from a social perspective it is a very heavy burden for us.
Stay a serious situation, and we need to maintain the practice and behavior that we know protecting us.
“Burdened hospitals can also contribute to more deaths, said Marc Lipsitch from Harvard Than School of Public Health and Scientific Director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention Forecasting Center.
“In places with very short staffing and advantages of patients, because medical professionals have told us, the quality of care begins to suffer,” Lipsitch said.
“It can also cause a higher mortality rate, but it’s not in one of it.
The model I know.”
US faces of omicron death waves in the coming weeks, said model
