Washington: After ending the 20-year US war, President Joe Biden hopes that the American economy can function as a leverage in the Taliban to form a new Afghanistan.
But experts questioned how much Islamists victory could be swayed.
Since their stunning Afghanistan takeover in August, Taliban’s leadership has been looking for rebranding from the famous Zealotry of the 1996-2001 regime and voicing hope for a stable relationship with the United States.
The possibility of underlying the attitude of the Taliban is a harsh reality so they must now run one of the poorest countries in the world, where foreign assistance led by the United States contributed 75 percent of public expenditure in 2019.
Because former guerrillas controlled Kabul’s capital on August 15, countries West has stopped direct payments and the United States has freezed nearly $ 9.5 billion in central bank assets.
In a Tuesday address to mark the end of the American longest war, Biden promised to provide “leverage” to the Taliban including through “diplomacy, economic tools and rallies throughout the world.” His national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, in an ABC interview did not refuse to finally send aid to the Taliban government, by saying: “We will wait and see their actions.” Biden painted a very pragmatic view of the interests of the US in Afghanistan – removing Americans left and ensuring it was not a base for international attacks, the initial reasons for the United States overthrew the first Taliban regime after the Taliban attack on September 11.
This time, US officials were surprised by the level of Taliban cooperation in the last days to release US citizens and many Afghan allies.
But both officials and experts say the jury came out at the Taliban 2.0.
Elizabeth Threlkeld, a senior colleague at the Stimson Center and a former US diplomat, said the Taliban had its own income stream, including through narcotics, smuggling and their own customs and taxation.
But on international assistance, “there is only so much so that they will be able to do it without the continuation of the funds,” he said.
The Taliban has demonstrated the willingness to work with the United States against the extremist group of Islamic countries, its rivals, but will face “more difficult sales” internally at the core of their ideology such as the treatment of women, whose rights are very limited during the former regime, Threlkeld said.
“I think pragmatic courses ahead might not trust and verify,” Threlkeld said.
“Even though it’s far from the ideal choice,” he said working with the movement of the Islamic State, “which can be an area where we can start and we can test the waters.” Graeme Smith, a consultant at the International Crisis Group, said the United States needs to be realized it will not get everything he wants.
“Western diplomats are obsessed with leverage.
I think it’s the wrong way to think about it.
We lost a war.
Stop full,” he said.
“So whatever we try to achieve now in Afghanistan will come from a humility, and from the giving and receiving place.
It will be about bargaining and not about coercion.” Smith said that Afghanistan could be in a position that was far more dangerous if the United States had not been dialogue with rebels – who knew US priorities.
“The Taliban is not eager to become an American proxy.
But they also want to avoid the type of provocation which results in the collapse of their last government,” he said.
This group can still form a pretty good government in the west of the rights and cover the numbers of former internationally supported government in Kabul.
“If you do that, then I think it is possible that the Taliban government can avoid being a kind of North Korea in South Asia,” he said.
Michael Kugelman, a South Asian expert at Woodrow Wilson International Center for scholars, said the Taliban and the United States could find a common cause in coordinating narrowly to encourage humanitarian assistance for Afghanistan.
“Economic assistance is the only arrow left in Quiver Washington,” he said.
But the condition of non-humanitarian assistance faces potential giant constraints – China, which has explained that he is ready to do business with the Taliban for seeking a wealth of Afghan minerals.
“Beijing does not need guarantees from the Taliban on human rights.
As long as we get security guarantees, it will likely offer recognition,” Kugelman said.
“The US must be very practical about what can be achieved in Afghanistan, and keep expectations remain low.”
US leverage leverage – but the influence on the Taliban looks limited
