Analysis of vaccine stocks in the US, UK, EU, Canada and Japan, have found there are 500 million vaccine doses available for redistribution at the end of September, while 1.2 billion doses will potentially available at the end of this year.
This analysis was carried out by Science information based in the UK and Air Analytics Airfinity and supported by the International Federation of Manufacturers and Pharmaceutical Associations (IFPMA).
Of the 500 million doses available for redistribution at the moment, around 360 million is intended for donations and around 1 billion of 1.2 billion doses which are expected to be available at the end of this year are intended for donations.
While the full report on the same thing will be officially released on September 7 on a global media briefing with IFPMA, Airfinity shares the same short version with selected journalists from around the world, including TOI.
Analysis predicts what these countries need and what is available to be sent elsewhere.
It assumes western countries continue their vaccination program for everyone over 12 years and also continues with booster shots for everyone.
Rasmus Bech Hansen, Co-Founder and CEO, Airfinity, said: “The world has reached a critical point when it comes to the availability and production of vaccines.
For large Western countries, the challenge is no longer supplying, but the global supply chain succeeds in increasing production and Our detailed estimates show that high-income countries can have confidence that there are many upcoming vaccines and this must reduce the need for hoarding.
“Describes the method used for analysis, the company said: the available dosage for redistribution analysis was calculated using estimates Supply to each country, which is based on the estimated scale of production.
The surplus of the scenario dose first contributed to the initial vaccination campaign – sufficient doses to vaccinate all those who qualified – before obtaining supplies for booster, with the remaining supply calculated as available for redistribution.
“Scenario shows the absorption of real-world vaccines and booster for all (based on current data) and then compare this to an 80% absorption rate under a different vaccination scenario and booster, to show how many doses can be approved from the agreed upon supply vaccine , “he added.
Above the vaccine dose currently available, there are many flowing, said Airfinity, adding that the production of global vaccines has increased rapidly with the production of a total of 6 billion doses produced to date.
According to the analysis, the current producer produces 1.5 billion doses per month and this is expected to continue to grow.
About 11.3 billion doses needed to vaccinate the world’s population and air output estimates to achieve it at the end of 2021.
While more than 1 billion doses have been promised to be contributed by G7 and EU, less than 15% have been delivered.
Analysis shows that more than 1.2 billion doses can be available for donations by G7 in 2021 only, while still maintaining a domestic booster campaign for all adults.
“How is this stock distributed, where they go and whether they are resold or donated in the end are political decisions.
With these numbers, I believe this world has a better basis for making this critical allocation decision and avoiding wasted doses,” Hansen added.
Vaccine surplus: 500 million doses can be available for poor countries at the end of September
