Kolkata: While a sharp decline at the level of prospitis signaling the death of the second wave – it drops below 3% – the numbers can begin to spin in just one and a half months, experts are afraid.
And the waves can be spiral very quickly, similar to what happens during the second wave and drop like suddenly if the correct action is taken, they predict.
Vaccination, they show, will act as a more effective shield today and can ensure minor disease and fewer patients.
The country can lead to the third covid wave between August and October, although with fewer affected and shorter ‘peak period’ of the second wave, they feel.
“Like the second wave, we might have a sharp rise, even shorter peaks and fast numbers.
This can occur because of two factors – vaccinations and the fact that the virus requires a fairly new strain to strike and affect the large population.
Even though strains like Delta and Delta Plus have emerged, they are no longer fresh, “said the Microbiology of the Hospital of Bhaskar Narayan Chaudhuri.
Vaccination will protect most of the population or will limit the disease to be mild, he said.
Numbers must remain low for at least a month until the third wave attacks, the Director of CMRI Pulmonology Raja Dhar.
“While we will receive more than a dozen patients every day for a month ago, now we get one every 48 hours,” he said.
Dhar added that the cases might begin to spin slowly towards the end of July and early August, reaching the peak in September.
“While the third wave can be light with a number of cases that are far less than the second wave and the result less death, it will continue for several months.
The pattern will be similar to the previous wave except the fact that this can be the lightest,” Dhar added.
However, more and more children, can be influenced during these waves, warn experts.
“They are the biggest part that is not vaccinated from the population now and therefore is most vulnerable to the virus.
But the more we vaccinate, we will make a shield around our children who are not vaccinated who will help save lives,” said Belle Vue Clinic Internal Medicine Consultant Rahul Jain.
According to a study, only 2% of the affected ones are children in the first wave but the percentage rose to 12% during the second.
“We have a new strain now and we don’t know how effective the vaccine will work against them.
But because people are more careful now, transmissions will be checked that must ensure shorter waves,” said RN Tagore International Institute of Cardiac Sciences Intensive Sauren Panja , Possible the third striking week earlier than August could not be ruled out, though, warned Chaudhuri.
“Delta and Delta plus may not be the only new strain.
For the next few weeks, more can appear where we don’t have resistance.
It can speed up and extend the wave,” Chaudhuri said.