Hyderabad: Researchers in IIT Kanpur have predicted that the third wave, which can be triggered by the Omicron variant of the Covid-19 virus, can peak in India on February 3 “After trends around the world, this Indian project report estimates that the three wave to start around the middle December and peak in early February, “the report, published in the Medrxiv Online Prefrint server, said.
The team uses statistical tools called Gaussian mixed models to predict the third wave in India.
The research report uses the first and second wave data in India, and the current increase in cases triggered by Omicron in various countries, to predict the possibility of the third wave in this country.
The researchers said research “suggested cases reach the peak value after 735 days from the date of our initial observation, namely January 30, 2020, when India reported the first official Covid-19 case.
So, cases began to rise around December 15, 2021, and peaks The third wave will occur on Thursday, February 3, 2022 “.
Also read the 3rd wave driven in India is likely to peak in February: Covid Supermodel Paneldaily Covid-19 Kaseload in India which is currently around 7,500 infections expected to increase as Omicron begins to displace delta as a dominant variant, said National Covid-19 member committee said and estimate the third wave in India early in the year.
The head of the national research team, taken from the Ministry of Mathematics and Statistics, IIT Kanpur, consisting of Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Sankra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh.
The researchers say key questions after the first wave and second Covid-19 is “the third wave will also arrive and, if yes, then when”.
To uncover the puzzle, the team uses statistical methods based on the installation of a mixture of Gaussian distribution.
Also read: there is no clear evidence about increasing virulence, finding a national joint study of existing variants, there is no clear indication of increased severity (affinity for Ace2 “after planning everyday cases per million from all other countries and matching graphics with India, the top 10 countries with the best match selected as a training dataset.
Top 10 countries are: US, British, German, French, South Africa, Russia, Israel, Spain, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Zambia and Zimbabwe are the closest matching countries with data Everyday cases follow patterns that are very similar to India, “the researchers said.
Omicron can trigger the 3rd wave, can peak on February 3: IIT-K
